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Minutes before US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social about “productive” talks amid the war with Iran, traders placed bets worth over half a million dollars in the oil market, the Financial Times reported Monday.

Around 6,200 Brent and West Texas Intermediate futures contracts changed hands 15 minutes before Trump's post, which sent crude oil prices below $100 and made other assets volatile. The trading took place between 6:49 AM and 6:50 AM New York time on Monday, a quarter hour after the postsaid there had been “productive conversations” in recent days with Tehran to end the war in Iran.

According to the FT report based on Bloomberg data, the notional value of these trades was $580 million.

Trading volumes for both Brent and WTI skyrocketed 27 seconds before 6:50 AM, all at the same time, raising suspicions. Futures tracking the S&P 500 share index also leapt in these price moments after the oil trade, with volume rising significantly during the period.

It was immediately unclear whether a single entity or several entities made the oil bets during this time.

“It’s hard to prove causality... but you have to wonder who would have been relatively aggressive at selling futures at that point, 15 minutes before Trump’s post,” a market strategist at a US broker was quoted as saying about Monday's trade by FT.

Several hedge funds also noted that this was one of many recent examples in which traders placed numerous bets ahead of official US government announcements.

According to a trader at a major hedge fund cited by FT, energy consultants have, in recent times, noticed multiple block trades that they found to be unusually timed.

Another portfolio manager said the series of large, well-timed trades had led to a “level of frustration” among investors.

“My gut from watching markets for the last 25 years is this is really abnormal,” he added. “It’s Monday morning, there’s no important data today, and there aren’t any Fed speakers you’d want to front-run. It’s an unusually large trade for a day with no event risk… Somebody just got a lot richer,” this person was quoted as saying by FT.

Crude futures have been highly volatile as the market reacts to ever-shifting headlines on the status of the war in the Middle East, which has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz.

Following Trump's comments on a possible de-escalation, Iran denied any talks had been held. “No negotiations have been held with the US,” Iranian parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf posted on X, adding that “fake news is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets.”

Oil prices briefly fell below $100 a barrel after Trump claimed his government was in talks to end the war. But that respite was short-lived, with Brent crude, the international benchmark, back at $104 a barrel in morning trading.Swastika is a Digital Content Producer at LiveMint, covering business news and business trends. She has always been intrigued by the numbers that drive news, which has led to a passion for covering finances as a beat - be it personal finance or corporate. Originally from Kolkata, Swastika’s love for news started at home where her family made sure she read newspapers since she was a kid. With over five years of experience in digital news, and one year at LiveMint, her focus includes writing on the business and personal finance beats. Swastika is a 2020 graduate from the Asian College of Journalism, Chennai, with a specialisation in New Media. Before her current role at LiveMint, she worked at major publications like The Telegraph Online, News18.com and The Economic Times. As a Digital Content Producer at LiveMint, she has extensively covered topics like income tax, Union Budget, economy, personal finance tools and cryptocurrency. Swastika’s specialisations include: Corporate news: Writing and breaking stories from corporates and companies Business trends: Finding what's trending in business and churning original stories Personal finance explainers: Writing explainers on income tax, provident fund, etc. Swastika can be followed on her LinkedIn profile as well as on X at @swastika1005. She can be reached by email via swastika.sharma@htdigital.in.

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