Adani Power share price climbs 2% in a weak market, jumps 15% YTD; is it a stock to buy?

Adani Power's share price climbed 2 per cent in intraday trade on Wednesday, July 9, defying weak market sentiment. Adani Power shares opened at ₹600.20 against their previous close of ₹599.70 and climbed nearly 2 per cent to an intraday high of ₹609.95. The stock traded 0.71 per cent up at ₹603.95 around 11:35 AM, looking set to extend gains to the third consecutive session. Equity benchmark Sensex was almost flat at 83,734 at that time.

Adani Power share price has clocked a decent gain of over 15 per cent year-to-date (YTD) against a nearly 7 per cent gain in the benchmark Sensex.

On a monthly scale, the Adani Group stock has been in the green since March this year. In July so far, the stock has risen about 4 per cent.

Adani Power stock hit a 52-week high of ₹752.15 on August 1, followed by a 52-week low of ₹430.85 on November 21 last year.

Experts appear largely positive about Adani Power stock as they expect the company to benefit from India's growing power demand.

Global brokerage firm Jefferies has a buy call on Adani Power stock with a target price of ₹690.

The global brokerage firm said Adani Power is a listed pure play on India’s thermal energy story and expects the company's EBITDA to double by FY30.

Jefferies believes the company is poised for strong capacity addition on a comfortable

balance sheet. Additionally, the company's risk profile is reducing gradually as incremental capacity is being locked in with profitable PPAs (power purchase agreements), Jefferies said.

"Adani Power’s capacity is up 29 per cent in FY23-25 to 17.6 GW. The management target is 30 GW capacity by FY30E. 11.2 GW equipment has already been ordered out at competitive rates with BHEL," Jefferies noted.

"Faster execution is being ensured with Adani Power's own teams doing the site erection and setup on equipment delivery. 3 GW+ should be operational by the first half of the financial year 2028 (1HFY28E) and gives visibility to double-digit EBITDA CAGR in FY25-30E," Jefferies said.

Jefferies noted that Bangladesh’s $384 million payment in June 2025 also boosts the stock's confidence.

"Adani Power is a listed pure play on India’s thermal energy story. Additionally, as peak power containment remains a focus area for the government, it is likely that India’s thermal targets will be raised, which, in turn, could lead to an increase in the company’s target as the opportunity landscape rises," Jefferies said.

Jefferies values Adani Power at 15 times EV/EBITDA, a 36 per cent premium to NTPC’s implied 11 times multiple.

However, Jefferies highlighted that past PPA issues cropping up again and impacting EBITDA, and a sharp drop in merchant realisations are the key downside risks.

While the stock appears to be a long-term bet due to the company's healthy growth prospects, some experts believe one may consider booking some profits in the stock at the current juncture and wait for some correction to make fresh entry.

"Adani Power is currently facing a strong resistance zone between ₹600– ₹615, which has held firm for the past five to six months, as seen in the chart. A decisive close above ₹615 is required to trigger a fresh upside move towards ₹650," said Jigar S. Patel, Senior Manager of Equity Research at Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers.

Patel sees ₹600– ₹615 as a key resistance zone for the stock, while he suggests a target price on the breakout at ₹650

"Book profits near ₹610– ₹615 and wait for a close above ₹615 for fresh entry," said Patel.

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stories by Nishant Kumar

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.

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