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Avenue Supermarts shares could fall 50% in a 'bear case' scenario, Emkay warnsEmkay wrote in its note that with a forward price-to-earnings valuation of 70 times, the stock is pricing in a business that DMart needs to become and not what it currently is.By Hormaz Fatakia   April 13, 2026, 9:11:09 AM IST (Published)2 Min ReadShares of Avenue Supermarts Ltd., parent company of Radhakishan Damani-owned hypermarket chain DMart, could halve from current levels in a bear case scenario, brokerage firm Emkay warned in its note on Monday, April 13.

Emkay initiated coverage on Avenue Supermarts with a "sell" rating and a base case price target of ₹3,700 apiece. The base case target implies a downside potential of 15% from current levels.

In a "bear case" scenario, Emkay expects the stock to fall to levels of ₹2,200, which is exactly 50% lower from current levels.

The brokerage wrote in its note that with a forward price-to-earnings valuation of 70 times, the stock is pricing in a business that DMart needs to become and not what it currently is.

India's Quick-Commerce players are now pricier by only 4% to 13% than DMart on a monthly basket, with the gap disappearing after bank discounts, according to Emkay, who added that the bull cuts per square feet is down 6% since financial year 2020, even as the dark store count went up to 2,000 from 421 earlier.

Dmart still covers only 50% of India's total retail addressable market, despite store count rising to 500 in the recent times, Emkay's note stated.

At a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 4.2 times, compared to Trent and Titan trading at 2.6 times, the market is paying a perefection for a business that needs structural reform.

11 analysts each out of the 29 that have coverage on Avenue Supermarts, have a "buy" and "hold" rating on the stock. Seven have a "sell" rating on the stock.

Shares of Avenue Supermarts had ended 0.5% lower on Friday at ₹4,395.2. The stock has risen 12% in the last one month.Continue ReadingTagsAvenue SupermartsDMartDMart ownershare market today