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Investors breathed a sigh of relief on Wednesday as the Nifty 50 crossed 25,000 once again. But given the two-phased nature of the market, uncertainty remains, leaving investors guessing.

FACT: Buy above ₹1,015 and on dips to ₹980, stop ₹965, target ₹1,125-1,150

CHALET: Buy at CMP and on dips to ₹965, stop ₹950, target ₹1,070-1,098

EMAMILTD: Buy at CMP and on dips to ₹606, stop ₹590, target ₹680-700

Dalal Street extended its winning streak to a fifth straight session on Wednesday as investors cheered the government's plan to rationalise the Goods and Services Tax (GST).

The Sensex climbed 213.45 points or 0.26% to close at 81,857.84, while the Nifty gained 69.90 points or 0.28% to settle at 25,050.55. Market breadth was positive, with 2,071 shares advancing, 1,588 declining, and 124 unchanged.

The current rally also reflects optimism about pre-Diwali GST reforms that may stimulate demand for automobiles, FMCG, insurance, and select financial stocks. An improvement in India-China ties has buoyed sentiment. However, the rally depends on many factors, mainly US tariffs, so, investors are walking a tightrope.

The gap area highlighted yesterday continues to support the trends, which have been largely oriented towards trading rather than investing. From a trading perspective we can see on the daily charts that the gap support area has helped prices rebound. The gradual rise we saw last week is now set to continue as we trade into the weekly expiry today.

The emerging trend clearly suggests that the rally last week was a holding the resistance zone and a gap-up opening ensured that the prices traded above that range. The move above 25,000 (Nifty Spot) signals a bullish bias. Momentum on hourly charts indicates that the market seems to have absorbed the selling pressure. However, we can expect the rise to remain hesitant as the bearish overhang continues.

We continue to maintain short positions in the Nifty so long as 24,800 holds, viewing any sustained move below that level as a clear sign that bullish conviction is waning. What had previously been support around 24,500 has now shifted up to 24,800, while open interest peaking at 25,200 marks the next significant resistance zone.

If the index breaks down from its current 30-minute range on Wednesday, we can pivot to two-way trades, but until then the trend remains in a tentative standoff. Geopolitical uncertainty still looms large, limiting the market’s ability to muster strong directional moves, so be prepared to lock in gains quickly.

At the same time, monitor FII/DII flow data for shifts in institutional sentiment, watch US yields and crude‐oil volatility for potential catalysts, leverage intraday volatility heatmaps to spot pockets of expanding risk, and consider short-tenor option structures—such as one-week iron condors—to capitalize on muted directional conviction.

Options data suggests that PCR has now moved comfortably above 1, highlighting that the trends are showing intention to move higher. Steady put writing at 25,000 to 24,800 levels continues absorb the bearish bias and help the recovery.

We must now watch out for multiple news triggers as global tariff threats, cautious investor sentiment, and domestic economic challenges have contributed to the sharp market decline and volatility in the rupee.

Buy above ₹1,015 and on dips to ₹980, stop ₹965, target ₹,1125-1,150

Buy at CMP and on dips to ₹965, stop ₹950, target ₹1,070-1,098

Buy at CMP and on dips to ₹606, stop ₹590, target ₹680-700

Raja Venkatraman is co-founder, NeoTrader. His Sebi-registered research analyst registration no. is INH000016223.

Investments in securities are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by Sebi and certification from NISM in no way guarantees performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.

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