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BofA sees 9% Nifty upside over the year; energy security a multi-decade theme for IndiaBofA Global Research’s Amish Shah highlighted energy security as a long-term theme, driven by India’s dependence on imported fuel and the need for policy support across biofuels, electrification, and power infrastructure.By Nigel D'Souza   |  Reema Tendulkar   |  Prashant Nair  April 28, 2026, 1:01:42 PM IST (Published)2 Min ReadAmish Shah, Head–India Research at BofA Global Research, said Indian markets could see around 9% upside over the year, with limited downside to earnings, while highlighting energy security as a long-term theme.

Shah said the brokerage has already factored in weaker earnings. “We are working with 8.5% earnings growth for the whole of FY27 for Nifty,” he said, adding that estimates were cut earlier in anticipation of global risks.

“Unless the conflict goes beyond June, there is now no downside to our numbers,” he said. Shah expects a part of the upside to come quickly once tensions ease, with further gains over time.

For the full interview, watch the accompanying video

He said near-term volatility could persist due to the impact of the Iran conflict on the March and June quarters. However, he pointed to multiple triggers for the rest of the year, including potential reforms, easing global tensions, and policy developments.

On structural themes, Shah highlighted energy security as a key focus for India. He said the country remains dependent on imports. “India imports about 90% of its crude requirements,” he said, adding that supply shocks can affect inflation, currency, and fiscal balance.

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He said the current situation could act as a turning point for policy. “This is a wake-up call for India… it could be a multi-decade theme,” he said, referring to energy security.

Shah outlined key areas where India could focus, including biofuels, electrification, green hydrogen, and building strategic reserves. He said increasing ethanol blending and expanding power capacity could reduce dependence on imported fuels.

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He added that electrification will require large investments across the power value chain. This includes the generation, transmission, and equipment segments, which could benefit from higher spending.

Shah said investors should be selective across sectors, noting that while some segments have already seen price gains, long-term opportunities will depend on policy support and execution.

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