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'Could be largest oil supply disruption in history', S&P Global Energy warns on US-Iran warS&P Global Energy says that markets with little or no inventories will face the brunt of the negative supply impact and in case there is a 7 million barrels per day loss in supply for many months, prices will indeed rise to $100 per barrel or even higher as supply is rationed while demand falls.By Hormaz Fatakia   March 3, 2026, 9:52:47 AM IST (Published)2 Min ReadThe ongoing US-Iran war could turn out to be the largest oil supply disruption in history if flows via the Strait of Hormuz remain low or come to a halt, S&P Global Energy warned in a note dated March 2.

The note, authored by Jim Burkhard, observed that only five oil tankers transited the Strait on March 1, compared to the recent daily tally of 60, citing data from Commodities at Sea.

"If the reduction in tanker traffic continues for a week or so, it will be historic," the note said, adding that beyond that period, it will be epochal for the oil market with prices starting to ration scarce supply and consequently impact financial markets as well.

During the first two months of the year, as many as 20.8 million barrels per day of crude and products were shipped via the Strait of Hormuz, of which, 82% went to Asian markets. Around 18% of global LNG supply also transits the Strait. "The loss of a good part of this energy supply could fuel financial and economic shocks," S&P Global Energy said.

In case tankers halt transiting the Strait, nearly 15 million barrels per day of crude oil and products, most of which is oil, are at risk. The precise amount will demand on the utilization of Saudi and Emirati pipelines that bypass the region.

Even at the midpoint of the supply risk, which is 7-8 million barrels per day of crude and products, would be higher than the volumes initially at risk when Russia invaded Ukraine or during the 1990 gulf war.

Where Are Oil Prices Headed?

In the near-term, S&P Global Energy expects oil prices to remain volatile, both up and down and continue to respond to headlines, perceptions, rumours and panic or emergency buying at any price.

A recent note by the agency had projected oil prices to be in the mid-$80s range over the next several months to reflect a tighter market and possibility of a lingering "fear premium". This is in case flows resume via the Strait but without Iranian exports.

The note also says that markets with little or no inventories will face the brunt of the negative supply impact and in case there is a 7 million barrels per day loss in supply for many months, prices will indeed rise to $100 per barrel or even higher as supply is rationed while demand falls.Continue ReadingTagsBrent crudecrude oil pricesOil pricesWest Texas Intermediate WTI