Earnings Preview! These 5 Nifty companies may see double-digit decline in Q1 profit

As the first quarter earnings season of FY26 begins, Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOSL) has flagged a cautious outlook for select Nifty constituents. The brokerage anticipates muted performance across certain heavyweights, especially in sectors facing margin pressures, geopolitical headwinds, and demand moderation. MOSL said that the first half of 2025 has been marked by considerable geopolitical and economic disruptions, which significantly heightened volatility in global equity markets. With S&P 500 VIX spiking over 50 percent and India VIX touching 20 percent, investor sentiment has remained fragile.

According to MOSL, these conditions have muddled monetary policy clarity and dampened corporate earnings visibility. However, MOSL termed the first quarter of FY26 as a “Crossover quarter” with the potential to transition from the low single-digit earnings growth seen in FY25 to a more robust double-digit trajectory over the next four quarters. Analyst estimates compiled by MOSL suggest a modest 5 percent YoY rise in Nifty earnings for Q1FY26.

According to MOSL, IndusInd Bank is expected to report a sharp 73.7 percent decline in net profit at ₹570 crore in Q1FY26, down from ₹2,170 crore in the same quarter last year. Net interest income is also projected to fall 23 percent YoY to ₹4,160 crore. MOSL said business growth is likely to remain modest, with asset quality showing further signs of deterioration. Margins are expected to stay under pressure, and credit cost trends will be key monitorables this quarter, MOSL added.

Tata Motors is likely to post a 34.4 percent YoY fall in net profit to ₹3,630 crore from ₹5,540 crore in Q1FY25, MOSL said. Operating revenue is also expected to decline by 7.7 percent YoY. MOSL flagged weak demand, higher input costs, and rising discounts as reasons for margin compression in both passenger and commercial vehicle segments. JLR’s volumes are expected to fall 10 percent due to shipment discontinuation to the US, and MOSL estimates a sharp 400 basis points margin contraction in JLR to 11.8 percent.

Coal India’s net profit is estimated to decline by 20.8 percent YoY to ₹8,680 crore, although sales may rise slightly by 2.1 percent to ₹37,240 crore, according to MOSL. Coal production and offtake remained muted, which could weigh on earnings. That said, elevated e-auction premiums are expected to provide some support. MOSL highlighted that management commentary on volume guidance and e-auction pricing for FY26/27 will be closely watched.

MOSL expects Maruti Suzuki’s net profit to decline 19.1 percent YoY to ₹2,952 crore despite a marginal 1.1 percent increase in revenue to ₹35,939 crore. The brokerage attributed the weakness to flat volume growth and a slightly deteriorated product mix. Although exports improved and stable EBITDA margins are expected, lower UV share and one-offs from the previous quarter are likely to pull down profitability. PAT is projected to fall 19 percent YoY, MOSL said.

ONGC may report a 14 percent YoY fall in net profit to ₹7,680 crore, with sales also expected to decline 12.3 percent YoY to ₹30,380 crore, according to MOSL. The brokerage expects oil, gas, and VAP volumes to remain flat, while delays in peak oil production from the KG Basin and falling crude prices (below USD 65/bbl) pose risks to the outlook. MOSL added that updates on gas production ramp-up will be critical in the upcoming management commentary.

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