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The rally in silver, and to a lesser extent gold, has, for the first time, pushed the average daily turnover (ADT) of futures contracts on Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (MCX) within the closest range ever of the average daily stock futures turnover of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd (NSE), the country’s largest stock exchange, on a monthly basis.

Analysts, however, believe the bullion turnover could moderate, in line with returns, from the highs seen in 2025. Turnover rises due to changes in prices and higher volatility of the contracts traded.

As silver and gold surged by 31% and 8% each in December, the ADT of MCX futures contracts surged to ₹93,929 crore. This stood at 81% of NSE stock futures contracts' ADT of almost ₹1.17 trillion, showed data from MCX and NSE.

Interestingly, silver outshone gold at ₹41,370 crore ADT, contributing 44% to the overall MCX ADT of ₹93,929 crore, while gold at ₹32,426 crore accounted for 35% of the overall ADT.

A shortage in silver supply—expected at 800 million ounces against the demand of an estimated 1-1.2 billion ounces in 2026—and haven demand for gold amid US tariff-induced global economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions drove the active MCX gold and silver futures' average price up 47% each year-on-year in the fiscal year through December (April-December, FY26).

The average price of gold active futures jumped to ₹1.08 lakh per 10g, while that of silver active futures surged to ₹1.29 lakh per kg, according to Bloomberg. Active futures are those where trading interest is the highest.

As a consequence, the MCX share surged to a 52-week high of ₹2,278 apiece on Friday, up a staggering 158% from its 52-week low of ₹881.63 on 11 March 2025.

However, the exuberance seen in December is unlikely to continue, according to experts. “The Street is currently not discounting the continuation of the December run rate in terms of ADT and its impact on the bourse's revenues,” said Amit Chandra, vice-president (research), HDFC Securities.

Street estimates for MCX futures' ADT stand at ₹56,500 crore for 2026-27, from an estimated ₹51,500 crore for 2025-26, according to Chandra.

“The implication of this is twofold. One is that the turnover of bullion could moderate. Secondly, even if the turnover reduced 30% from the December run rate, the share price might not be impacted much from current levels as the current market price (CMP) is not factoring in a continuation of the exuberance seen in December,” said another broker on condition of anonymity.

Shekhar Bhandari, president, Kotak Mahindra Bank, expects gold to return 20% and silver 25% in 2026, lower than the 47% on-year rise in average contract prices for the nine months of the current fiscal.

Narinder Wadhwa, founder, SKI Capital, attributed the jump in MCX futures turnover partly to participants from relatively flat equity markets during the quarter “shifting” to gold and silver futures, given the “stupendous” rally in the metals, especially in silver. However, he believes that renewed interest in the equity markets in 2026 could result in the investor frenzy for bullion moderating.

Against a 47% rise in the December quarter for the precious metals, the Nifty rose by a mere 5.2% to 26,129.6 by 31 December.

NSE had a 99.8% share in equity futures—stock and index—as of November end, with BSE accounting for the rest.

Apart from precious metals, MCX offers futures contracts in base metals and energy

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