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Gold prices in India are expected to stay firm through the rest of 2025, supported by a weakening rupee and a continued uptrend in global markets, according to a sectoral update by ICICI Bank Global Markets, reported by ANI. The report suggests that domestic gold prices are likely to remain elevated amid strong festive demand and sustained investment interest.

The ICICI Bank report projects the rupee to trade between 87.00 and 89.00 against the US dollar in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first half of 2026. This, combined with steady global price gains, is expected to keep Indian gold prices on the higher side.

Domestic gold prices are forecast to trade between Rs 1,20,000 and Rs 1,35,000 per 10 grams through the remainder of this year and could rise further to Rs 1,30,000-Rs 1,45,000 in early 2026.

The report noted that risks remain tilted upwards if the rupee depreciates faster or international prices exceed current projections. At present, gold is trading around Rs 1.31 lakh per 10 grams on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX).

In an earlier interview with ANI, Anantha Padmanaban, founder member and former chairman of the All India Gem & Jewellery Domestic Council (GJC), said gold could reach Rs 1.50 lakh per 10 grams in the coming months. He attributed the rise to “unprecedented momentum” in global and domestic markets, supported by central bank buying and robust public demand in countries such as China and Japan.

According to the ICICI Bank report, investment demand remains strong, reflected in higher gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings. The SPDR Gold ETF, one of the world’s largest, saw its holdings rise from 975 tonnes on 13 September to 1,015 tonnes by 13 October 2025. However, speculative net long positions declined by around 8,000 contracts during the same period, suggesting some short-term profit-taking.

Domestic gold prices have climbed nearly 16 per cent over the past month, largely due to global price gains and a weaker rupee. Gold imports also rose sharply from $5.44 billion in August to $9.6 billion in September, signalling firm consumer and retail demand ahead of the festive season.

"With the onset of the festive season, gold demand in India is expected to pick up, which should keep imports high," the report said. While Indian households continue to prefer physical gold in the form of jewellery, coins, and bars, the recent rally has also attracted urban investors towards ETFs.

The World Gold Council recently reported that India’s physically backed gold ETFs recorded their largest-ever monthly inflow in September, as investors sought stability amid volatile stock markets and global geopolitical concerns.