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The recent terror attack in Pahalgam is likely to impact Kashmir's tourism sector, which was making a robust post-pandemic recovery. The tourism setback could lead to an unexpected and sharp rise in tourist footfall in other Himalayan states, especially Himachal Pradesh, experts believe.

Mohinder Seth, President of the Himachal Pradesh Tourism Stakeholders' Association, called the Pahalgam incident unprecedented in his decades-long career. “It's a sad and highly unfortunate incident. This tragedy not only upended the tourism sector in Kashmir but will also impact the neighbouring states of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh. I was in the tourism business for more than five decades but never saw or heard of such a heinous thing before,” he was quoted by TOI.

Notably, Kashmir had seen an extraordinary growth in tourism in the recent times. The Economic Survey Report for Jammu and Kashmir (2024-25) shows that the number of tourists grew from 6.65 lakh in 2021 to 34.97 lakh in 2024, marking a growth of around 425 per cent. The foreign tourist numbers rose from just over 1,600 in 2021 to more than 43,000 in 2024. The entire Jammu and Kashmir region recorded 2.36 crore tourist arrivals in 2024, with tourism contributing 7.2 per cent to the region’s GDP.

Meanwhile, Himachal Pradesh, which had also suffered a downturn during the pandemic, is now witnessing its own revival. The 2024-25 Economic Survey for the state shows a significant increase in domestic tourist arrivals from 56.32 lakh in 2021 to 1.8 crore in 2024, while foreign tourist numbers also saw a steep jump from 5,000 to 83,000. Tourism now contributes approximately 7.78 per cent to Himachal Pradesh's GDP.

"A whole generation grew up wanting to go to Kashmir, and it was only in the last three years that people's dream of visiting the paradise started coming true. It took decades to build the trust that you are safe in Kashmir. But now that trust is broken. This tragedy pushed back Kashmir tourism at least 15 years," said Panki Sood, a Kullu-based hotelier.

He acknowledged that Himachal might benefit from the diversion of tourists. “We may see double the tourist numbers this year, but we stand in solidarity with our friends in Kashmir. If they want to operate in Himachal temporarily, we are ready to support them,” he added.

While such a shift might appear beneficial on the surface, it brings with it concerns about overburdened infrastructure, uneven regional development, and long-term impacts on the perception of safety in the Indian Himalayas.

According to Ankur Thakur, a hotelier based in the state, limited tourist hubs in the region often lead to overcrowding, especially in summer. “With a surge in diverted tourism, the government must urgently invest in infrastructure, better accommodation, roads, parking, and transport, to avoid overwhelming the existing facilities,” he warned.

Meanwhile, Ladakh’s Lieutenant Governor, Brigadier B D Mishra (Retd), has called on tourism stakeholders to embrace and support tourists in the region. He emphasised tourism’s vital role in Ladakh’s economy and expressed hope for increased footfall in 2025. He also criticised the foreign travel advisories from countries like the US and UK that group Ladakh under Jammu and Kashmir, causing unnecessary confusion and concern for travellers.

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