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Pakistan’s decision to close its airspace in response to India’s actions following the terrorist attack in Pahalgam is likely to put a significant financial burden on Indian airlines, which will have to take longer routes to avoid flying over Pakistan, leading to higher fuel consumption and costs.

The Pakistan government on April 24, 2025, issued a NOTAM (notice to airmen), restricting the usage of its airspace for India-registered aircraft as well as aircraft operated, owned and leased by Indian airlines. It does not, however, restrict international carriers from using Pakistani airspace while connecting with India.

Following the NOTAM, Indian carriers, including IndiGo and Air India, announced that international flights to and from North America, the UK, Europe, and the Middle East will take alternative extended routes.

How will the alternative extended routes impact Indian travellers and airlines?

Indian airlines will have to avoid Pakistani airspace during international hauls, leading to at least an extra hour of flying, following the neighbouring country's move.

The move has raised concerns of disruption along one of the world’s busiest aviation corridors. Several daily flights from India to the major cities in the Middle East, including Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Sharjah, rely on the use of Pakistani airspace for the most direct route.

With the closure now in effect, all the Indian carriers operating to the UAE may be forced to reroute over the Arabian Sea or via longer southern paths, potentially adding up to two hours of flying time.

According to industry insiders, the airlines’ costs are bound to rise and could translate into higher airfares. Additionally, as airlines from other countries can continue to overfly Pakistan, they may get a cost advantage over Indian airlines on the affected routes.

Have Indian airlines faced such a situation before?

Indian airlines faced a similar situation for about five months in 2019 after the Pulwama terror attack.

The Pulwama terror attack on February 14, 2019, killed 40 CRPF personnel. In retaliation, the Indian Air Force carried out airstrikes on a Jaish-e-Mohammed training camp in Balakot, Pakistan, on February 26. Pakistan responded by immediately closing its airspace to Indian carriers, a restriction that lasted for about five months and was lifted on July 16, 2019.

Indian carriers lost over Rs 540 crore between February 26 and July 2, 2019, due to Pakistan's airspace closure, then Civil Aviation Minister Hardeep Singh Puri had told the Rajya Sabha. Air India alone incurred losses of Rs 491 crore, while private airlines SpiceJet, IndiGo, and Go First lost Rs 30.73 crore, Rs 25.1 crore, and Rs 2.1 crore, respectively, during that period.

Air India in a statement had said in 2019 that the flying time for long-haul flights towards the US had increased by 90 minutes and additional fuel was needed. Also, US-bound flights had to be stopped at Vienna, where the crew change took three hours. A similar situation is likely to be witnessed now.

In 2019, when Pakistan had reopened its airspace for all commercial airlines after July 16, Air India in a statement had said that operation costs for one-way US and Europe-bound flights are likely to come down by Rs 20 lakh and Rs 5 lakh, respectively.

"As Pakistan airspace is now open, aircraft utilisation will go up, while crew requirement will come down by 25 percent. Flight operation cost for a USA-bound flight may come down by Rs 20 lakh one way and for Europe-bound flights, it may come down by Rs 5 lakh. From tonight, flight operations may be on the original schedule, meaning as it was before the closure of Pakistani airspace," Air India had said in a statement in 2019.

Will the impact in 2025 be the same as in 2019?

Rerouting could become more complex and costly as Indian carriers' international operations have expanded significantly since 2019.

According to aviation analytics firm Cirium, Air India now operates around 1,188 international flights per week, a 56.7 percent increase from April 2019. Its India-Europe flights, many of which traverse Pakistan's airspace, have surged by about 80 percent to 242 services per week. Similarly, its India-North America flights, also relying on Pakistan's airspace, have more than doubled to 144 per week.

“If the closure continues for days or weeks, it could lead to fare hikes in the range of 5-10 percent and rescheduling. But if the closure continues for a longer time period it is too early to assess the impact already,” a senior executive from a domestic carrier told Moneycontrol.

“Flights to North Indian cities are expected to take longer time. Given the longer flight paths, we expect an additional 15 to 30 minutes of flying time, especially for sectors like Delhi, Amritsar, Srinagar, Chandigarh, Ahmedabad, Kolkata, Lucknow, Jaipur, and other eastern cities,” a senior executive from Yatra.com said.

He added that Indian airlines will be forced to re-route these flights over Mumbai and Ahmedabad, turning over the Arabian Sea to head to Muscat, and then fly to their destination.

"The re-routing is likely to add 1.5 hours to flights to Europe and an hour to flights to Dubai," the executive said.

Another executive from an online travel agent added that based on previous experience, airline partners could adapt to operational challenges with minimal disruption to passengers, and while airfares may see an impact, flight operations are unlikely to be impacted significantly.

“Situations like these are not uncommon in global aviation, and we trust the airlines to manage rerouting keeping passengers' safety as the top priority,” an executive from MakeMyTrip said.

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