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India-China news: The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz turned out to be a rescue tool for the Iranian government against the US-Israel attack. However, the US-Iran war has also fueled the upcoming possible border aggressions, like China attacking Taiwan or India, as the Dragon has beyond-border ambitions in these two countries. As Iran was ready for any kind of border aggression by Israel or the US, the Indian military staff have been successfully safeguarding the Indian territory from China. The Galwan Valley clash in 2020 is a glaring example of it.

According to experts, except in 1962, China never dared to indulge in a direct military fight with India. In fact, they chose a proxy war to keep India busy with its neighbouring countries. However, India not only foiled these proxy wars but also modernised its defence through new defence ties and technology transfers. The recent defence deals with Germany, the EU, France and Israel are glaring examples of it. However, experts also pointed out that in the event of any border aggression by China, India also has the 'Strait of Hormuz', which can be used to cut off around 80% of China's total oil and energy imports.

On lessons that India and China can learn from the US-Iran war, Ponmudi R, CEO, Enrich Money, said that China understands that any full-scale military confrontation with India carries risks far beyond the land border, particularly in the maritime domain.

"The Strait of Malacca remains a critical energy lifeline for Beijing, with a significant share of its crude imports passing through this narrow chokepoint—often described as China’s long-standing Malacca dilemma. This is where India’s geography becomes strategically relevant. The Andaman and Nicobar Islands provide India with a natural vantage point near the western entrance of Malacca, strengthening its ability to monitor and potentially influence maritime traffic in a conflict scenario," said Ponmudi of Enrich Money.

However, China has, over the years, built strategic petroleum reserves, diversified supply routes through Russia and Myanmar, and invested in reducing its dependence on a single corridor. India, therefore, cannot assume that disruption alone would decisively alter the balance.

Highlighting New Delhi's maritime edge over Beijing, Akshat Garg, Head of Research & Product at Choice International, said that India effectively holds its own “Strait of Hormuz” against China in the form of the Malacca Strait, through which roughly 80% of China’s oil imports transit via the Indian Ocean. Any major conflict or deliberate blockade by India of this maritime chokepoint would severely disrupt Beijing’s energy supply chain, crimping the dragon’s industrial and commercial activity at a time when it is already sensitive to global oil‑price volatility. This creates a powerful asymmetric deterrent: China simply cannot afford a full‑scale conventional war with India, given that its dependence on seaborne crude via the Malacca far exceeds its current land‑based or pipeline alternatives.

Expecting the Chinese administration to indulge more in the proxy wars instead of an intensified US-Iran like India-US war, the Choice International expert said, "Strategically, Beijing is far more likely to lean into limited‑warfare tactics—border skirmishes, information operations, and proxy pressure—rather than direct large‑scale military aggression. China will continue to exploit its influence in Islamabad, Dhaka, Kathmandu and other regional capitals to keep India off‑balance, while jointly relying on energy‑market dynamics and shipping‑channel dependencies to shape the security conversation."

Akshat Garg said that from a crude‑oil‑market standpoint, any credible threat to Malacca‑linked flows would hurt China’s own manufacturers and force India to recalibrate its Malacca Strait‑linked import basket, making both sides mindful of the fine line between coercion and mutual economic pain.

So, the Malacca Strait remains a powerful deterrence factor for India against China. It raises the cost of fuel and energy for China, which is why Beijing is more likely to continue with calibrated pressure through border tensions and regional influence rather than risk a full-scale confrontation.

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.Asit Manohar has nearly two decades of experience in the mainstream media. In this period, he has served esteemed media organisations like NDTV Profit, The Economic Times, and Zee Business. He has been working at LiveMint Digital since April 2021. During these two decades of journey in mainstream media, Asit has mainly covered external affairs, markets and personal finance. However, his earliest beats include railways, SME, MSME, and politics (Congress beat). Some of his features on political, economic, and foreign policy are documented in the parliamentary records.

While pursuing his MA (Mass Communication, Session 2004-06), Asit began his media career as a stringer at All India Radio in Varanasi. At AIR Varanasi, Asit worked with the Gyanvani, Yuvvani and Vividh Bharti teams. After working for nearly one year at AIR Varanasi, he shifted to print journalism and started working as a stringer for the HT Media Ltd, Varanasi. At HT Media Ltd in Varanasi, he covered the BHU beat.

Asit has also worked with some brokerage houses. He has worked with Religare Broking and India Infoline, where he assisted the research team in developing and executing trade strategies for intraday cash, F&O, and commodities.

Asit is a Gold Medalist in MA (Mass Communication) from BHU, Varanasi. He did his BSc. (Hons) in Mathematics from Magadh University, Bodh Gaya. Asit was a National Talent Scholarship holder during his senior secondary studies (1988-91).

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