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On the sidelines of announcing fresh tariffs on some nations, US President Donald Trump said that it is soon to crack a trade deal with India. Nonetheless, experts expect India to have a cautious stand and GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava is suggesting that as the clock keeps ticking for the likely trade deal- New Delhi needs to tread cautiously.

Furthermore, ahead of the likely deal between the two economies and as the season's new earnings season gathers momentum, with TCS set to kickstart the results season on Thursday, Zee Business Managing Editor expects a breakout only after these 2 two key events.

As we write Nifty50 index is trading muted at around 25,462, down 3 per cent from the peak marked in September last year. Nonetheless, in the last one month, the Indian equities traded rangebound between 25,100- 25,650 levels.

Devarsh Vakil, Head of Prime Research, HDFC Securities said President Trump mentioned that the US is close to making a trade deal with India. The mini-trade deal is likely to have annual quotas for lower tariffs on certain labour-intensive products from India, he added. Certain American agricultural products, such as pecans and blueberries, may be eligible for lower tax rates.

The talks on a comprehensive Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) are expected to begin after July 9, which marks the end of the 90-day suspension period of the Trump tariffs announced on April 2

We believe that if the India-US trade deal is announced, Indian markets will experience a relief rally, even if the deal's terms differ from initial market expectations, the simple removal of uncertainty around higher tariffs should drive this positive response, he added.

Meanwhile, Vaqajaved Khan , Senior Fundamental Analyst, Angel One pointed out that the market sentiment improved as US President Donald Trump signalled progress towards a trade deal with India. After his comments, the US administration imposed tariffs on 14 countries but excluded India from the list.

He added that despite the trade tensions, the US remains India’s largest trading partner. In FY25, the total goods traded between India and US stood at $131.84 billion with India enjoying a surplus of $41.18 billion. The US wants concession in sectors such as industrial goods, automobiles, petrochemicals, wines, dairy and agricultural products. India on the other side is looking for lower tariffs on apparel, textiles, jewellery, leather, plastics, chemicals among others.

However, India is reluctant on opening its key sectors such as dairy and agriculture sectors to US imports. India has never included dairy in any free trade agreement so far, he pointed out.

Going by the comments of US President if the trade deal happens then overall market sentiment would improve on account of trade stability which will lead to improvement in global investor confidence and may increase FPI inflows to export oriented companies. Once tensions around tariffs is over, volatility in rupee will decrease as well, underscored Khan.

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