Markets in ‘fog of war’, but investors must stay focused on long term: Ashwini Agarwal
Published on 10/05/2025 04:05 PM
Markets in ‘fog of war’, but investors must stay focused on long term: Ashwini AgarwalAshwini Agarwal, Founder and Partner at Demeter Advisors, believes de-escalation would benefit both countries, though “whether the Pakistani army will listen to that call is anybody’s guess.”By Prashant Nair | Shereen Bhan May 10, 2025, 4:05:30 PM IST (Published)2 Min ReadAshwini Agarwal, Founder and Partner at Demeter Advisors, believes investors should focus on the long-term outlook, which still appears positive—even as we navigate this fog of war.
While markets have been slightly weak in recent days, they initially assumed the conflict would remain limited and not cause major damage. However, the latest developments and signals from the Ministry of Defence suggest the situation may be more serious than expected.
Agarwal added, “From my standpoint, this is fog of war and none of us really know what will happen and how long it will carry on and what will finally the end game be. But if history is any suggestion, I would encourage investors to not panic and look at the longer term picture, which I think remains reasonably constructive, even as we go through this fog of war.”
He explained that any major shift in the current situation could challenge the assumptions the market is working with and lead to short-term losses. How much the market falls and how much panic sets in will depend on what people believe about the conflict—whether it will be a short 5 to 10-day event like in the past, or something more serious and long-lasting.
Read Here | As India-Pakistan tensions rise, are defence stocks worth a look? DSP’s Vinit Sambre weighs in
Ashwini Agarwal supports the move by the U.S. Secretary of State to reach out to Pakistan’s Army Chief, calling it the right step.
He believes de-escalation would benefit both India and Pakistan, though it's uncertain whether the Pakistani military will respond positively. Until there are clear signs of tensions easing, India has limited options and must continue to respond.
He expects pressure to build further and hopes that “saner voices on both sides will heed” and help steer the situation toward peace. While the immediate future remains unclear, he is optimistic that, over time, both nations will find a way to de-escalate and return to normalcy. As he put it, “It’s in nobody’s interest to have a full-scale war between the two countries.”
Follow our live blog for the latest on the India-Pakistan WarContinue ReadingCheck out our in-depth Market Coverage, Business News & get real-time Stock Market Updates on CNBC-TV18. Also, Watch our channels CNBC-TV18, CNBC Awaaz and CNBC Bajar Live on-the-go!Tagsfund managerglobal market outlookIndia-Pakistan tensionsMarket analysts