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Markets settling into ‘new certainty’; earnings remain strong: Ed YardeniEd Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research explains why markets are adapting to geopolitical tensions, backed by strong earnings and the global artificial intelligence (AI) boom, while maintaining a bullish S&P 7700 target.By Mangalam Maloo   |  Prashant Nair   |  Nigel D'Souza  April 27, 2026, 2:08:38 PM IST (Updated)4 Min ReadEd Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, believes global markets are adapting to a 'new certainty' where geopolitical tensions may persist without triggering sustained sell-offs. With oil prices relatively stable and earnings remaining strong, investors appear willing to look past near-term disruptions.

He highlights that the real driver now is global earnings momentum—fueled in part by the expanding artificial intelligence trade—while maintaining a bullish outlook on US equities with a year-end target of 7700, even as geopolitical risks and election-related volatility linger.

Watch the full conversation here or scroll for edited excerpts.These are edited excerpts from the interview.Q: It seems the clouds of uncertainty have returned after some hope of a truce. What do you do in a situation like this? Does diminishing marginal utility apply—that this uncertainty won’t trigger as big a sell-off as before?

A: The market is settling into a new certainty—that this may be the status quo for a while. Things can change quickly, but the market seems to be saying investors can live with the thought that the US blockades Iranian ports, and that Iran blockades the Strait of Hormuz, and that the world can get along with it.

That’s debatable. But everyone is keying off oil prices. Even after expectations of a possible meeting were dashed, oil is not up much—just a couple of bucks—so we’re still around $100. The US can live with that. Other countries may find it harder.

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All in all, markets are saying the earnings outlook is bright—not just in the US, but globally. A lot of that is the artificial intelligence trade going global—we’re seeing it in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the US, and elsewhere.

Q: It’s quite incredible—the weight of Taiwan in the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Emerging Market Index is now equal to or even higher than China, thanks to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC). That’s the scale of this trend, right?

A: Taiwan is mostly Taiwan Semi, so it’s almost like saying one company has the same or soon the same weight as China. That’s remarkable, and it also reflects on China.

We know China is working hard on AI, but global financial markets, on a relative basis, prefer Taiwan over China.

Q: What do you make of Indian markets? We bounced back but have cooled off. The rupee is weak, and crude is higher—where does India fit in globally?

A: The story markets are discounting for India is straightforward—India imports a lot of energy and fertiliser. Both are in short supply and more expensive, and that’s weighing on the market.

While the US and some markets seem able to live with the status quo, that’s not the case for India. We need a clear end to the Middle East war for India to do better.

Also Read | Global capital may stick with the US despite emerging market growth: William Lee

Q: Would that be enough for India to outperform, or are there other factors to track?

A: Because India has underperformed, investors will look for opportunities where things have lagged. So yes, you could see a catch-up trade.

Q: What’s your updated view on the US markets?

A: The story is earnings, earnings, earnings. They’ve been remarkably strong—led by IT and energy, but other sectors too.

The market dropped from January 27 to March 30, driven by a PE decline—but that was partly because earnings were so strong. Around March-end, investors realised that if we move into a ceasefire/status quo in the Middle East, stocks are cheaper and earnings are at record highs. Buying the dip came in massively.

This market still has room to go higher. I am looking for 7700 by year-end. It may be choppy near term due to the Middle East, but markets are getting used to that. The next factor could be the US midterm elections and the volatility they bring.

Catch all the latest updates from the stock market hereContinue ReadingFirst Published: Apr 27, 2026 9:53 AM ISTTagsearningsEd yardeniglobal markets todayindia marketIndian stock marketsMiddle EastMSCI Emerging Marketoil prices todayUS markets today