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NBCC shares face target cuts post soft Q3; analysts say real estate monetisation is keyNuvama has a 'buy' rating on NBCC and has cut its target price from ₹146 to ₹139 per share, indicating an upside potential of 39% from its previous close of ₹100.2 apiece. By Shloka Badkar  February 17, 2026, 8:07:39 AM IST (Published)3 Min ReadShares of NBCC (India) Ltd. are in focus on Tuesday, February 17, after brokerage firm Nuvama cut its target price by 4.8%.

Nuvama has a 'buy' rating on NBCC and has cut its target price from ₹146 to ₹139 per share, indicating an upside potential of 39% from its previous close of ₹100.2 apiece.

It said the company's third quarter revenue increased by 8% to ₹3,020 crore from the previous year.

Its higher other income led to adjusted profit after tax (PAT) rising 11% to ₹130 crore from the previous year, Nuvama said.

The analyst said NBCC's order book remains strong at ₹1.3 lakh crore (book-to-bill of 9.8x). Of these, projects of ₹30,500 crore are currently under execution. In the third quarter, NBCC won projects worth ₹3,300 crore, it said.

Nuvama said that while the book-to-bill at 9.8x seems robust, 60% of the orders pertain to 'self-revenue generating projects', where the pace of real estate monetisation shall determine execution.

It said NBCC clocked top line of ₹1,500 crore from the 7-GPRA projects in the nine months of FY26. NBCC has awarded ₹2,700 crore worth of works in these projects in FY26, so far and has a tender pipeline of ₹1,400 crore.

The management expects to complete them in the next two years, Nuvama said.

While Phase 1 of the Amrapali project is likely to be completed by the end of the first quarter of FY27, the company has monetised ₹5,800 of the ₹8,200 units via bulk deal in Phase II.

NBCC has been awarded the Supertech projects and is estimated to start the same in FY27, Nuvama said. The company is set to launch the Ghitorni and Gurugram Sector 37D projects with gross development values (GDVs) of ₹8,500 crore and ₹2,300 crore, respectively, in FY27. Meanwhile, the Dubai and Kochi projects are slated for to be launched by the end of FY26.

Nuvama said the slowdown in housing volumes has led to concerns regarding pace of execution on the company's 'self-revenue generation' projects, compelling it to cut the estimated FY26, FY27 and FY28 earnings per share (EPS) by 7%, 13% and 12%, respectively.

It said it has maintained its 'buy' recommendation but cut its target price as it rolls forward valuations to the third quarter of FY28 estimates, which are 45 times the EPS.

At the current market price, the stock trades at price-to-earnings ratios of 36.8 times on FY27 and 31.8% on FY28 earnings per share estimates.

NBCC reported its third quarter earnings last week. Its net profit increased 39.3% to ₹193 crore from ₹138.5 crore in the previous year.

Its revenue increased 7.6% to ₹3,022 crore from ₹2,809 crore in the previous year.

The company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) declined 21% to ₹114.5 crore from ₹144.7 crore last year.

Its margin contracted to 3.8% from 5.2% in the year-ago period.

All three analysts who have coverage on NBCC have 'buy' recommendations on the stock.

NBCC shares ended the previous session 2% up at ₹100.02 apiece. The stock has declined 18% this year, so far.

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