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Neeraj Seth sees mixed outlook; AI strong, but oil risk still unresolvedNeeraj Seth, Founder & CIO of 3R Investment Management explains why a stance of cautious optimism is warranted, as geopolitical tensions, unresolved oil supply issues, and delayed policy support continue to shape the outlook. He also shares his views on the dollar’s trajectory, Fed policy delays, and why gold remains structurally supported despite near-term volatility.By Reema Tendulkar   |  Prashant Nair   |  Nigel D'Souza  April 22, 2026, 10:51:11 AM IST (Published)4 Min ReadNeeraj Seth, Founder & CIO of 3R Investment Management, expects increased volatility in the coming weeks if ceasefire talks in West Asia are delayed. However, the sharp correction seen in March is unlikely to repeat.

The artificial intelligence (AI) theme could regain momentum and drive markets but higher oil prices and supply concerns will weigh on growth and monetary policy, especially for oil importers. He sees the dollar staying sideways in the near term but weaken in the medium term.

Watch the full conversation here or scroll for edited excerpts.These are edited excerpts from the interview.Q: How should the markets read these developments, especially in light of the rally that's already taken place?

A: I do think markets should still read with some level of cautious optimism. Part of the reason I say that is looking at all the news flow—the ceasefire without any outright deadlines. I think both sides have started to show their cards, and the direction is toward some former shape of a compromise.

But the reason I will be cautious is twofold. One, the markets have rallied a fair bit. And second, the core of the issue in terms of the oil price and the flow of oil in terms of supply has not been resolved.

So, I think there's certainly more of what will evolve over the coming months in terms of the implications. At least I can say the worst is behind us, but we are not in the clear as yet.

Q: These things never go in a straight line… could we see dips being bought again, especially if this is a permanent ceasefire, but oil still needs to flow?

A: I do think you will see potentially the volatility picking up in the coming weeks if the talks really get delayed, because the markets are now going to expect to see some resolution, which at this point is unclear at best. And these things, to be perfectly honest, take time in terms of negotiating a compromise where both sides can go home and call it a victory. It's basically a strange situation from that angle.

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So, I'll still be on the cautious side to say you will see potentially more volatility, maybe a little bit more dip, but not as much as what you saw in March.

Q: What about positioning in terms of equity markets? You earlier hinted the dollar could remain subdued—what's the call now on global equities?

A: I would say global equity markets have certainly seen a bifurcation. The AI theme is back in action, regaining momentum, and I do expect that to continue. We will see the Magnificent 7 (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Nvidia, and Tesla) in the coming week from an earnings perspective. So, the AI theme is very much alive and kicking, and that will obviously drive part of the markets.

But higher oil prices and the availability of commodities will start to pinch through a combination of growth and monetary policy in some parts of the world, specifically the oil importers.

So, you would see a mixed outlook for equity markets. From a dollar perspective, near term, I think the dollar stays sideways. Medium term, I am still cautious, with further consolidation and weakening in the coming years.

Q: What does recent commentary around the Fed mean for markets, equities and gold?

A: From an equity perspective, monetary policy will not be as supportive as everybody expected in the US coming into this year. Part of it is the inflation impulse, but I still think the Fed, on the margin, will be moving towards an easing path. It's certainly delayed by at least a couple of quarters, so I don't think the Fed will move before the fall to the end of this year. So, the Fed stays on hold and is not going to give the monetary impulse.

From a gold outlook perspective, it's a combination of monetary policy and geopolitical tensions. The geopolitical tensions remain a supportive force for gold. So, on the margin, gold will gain once volatility comes down, because during high-volatility periods, it does not work very well. Structurally, I am still positive on gold, even without a lot of monetising in the US from here.

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