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The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open on a weak note Thursday, after the US President Donald Trump slapped an additional 25% tariff on imports from India, bringing the combined tariffs to 50%.

The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a negative start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 24,594 level, a discount of nearly 40 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.

Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on imports from India, due to the country’s alleged direct and indirect import of oil from Russia, bringing the combined tariffs imposed to 50%.

On Wednesday, the domestic equity market ended lower after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced its monetary policy. The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to keep the repo rate unchanged, and maintain the policy stance to ‘Neutral’.

The Sensex dropped 166.26 points, or 0.21%, to close at 80,543.99, while the Nifty 50 settled 75.35 points, or 0.31%, lower at 24,574.20.

Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:

Sensex is still holding a lower top and, on daily charts, has created a small bearish candle, which is largely negative.

“We believe that the short-term market outlook is weak but oversold. On the downside, 80,300 continues to be a promising support zone, while 81,000 would act as a crucial resistance area for the bulls. Above 81,000, the pullback is likely to continue up to 81,500 - 81,600. Conversely, a decline below 80,300 could push Sensex down to 80,000 - 79,700,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities.

On the derivatives front, the highest Call Open Interest (OI) for Nifty is seen at the 24,600 strike, followed by 24,700, suggesting that these levels may act as immediate resistance. On the Put side, the highest OI is placed at 24,500, followed by 24,400, highlighting strong support zones for the index.

This OI distribution suggests that the 24,400 – 24,700 range will be critical for Nifty’s near-term directional move, and a decisive breakout or breakdown from this zone could set the tone for the next leg of the trend, said Hardik Matalia, Derivative Analyst - Research at Choice Equity Broking.

Nifty 50 violated the previous session’s low, forming a bearish candle on the daily chart, setting the stage for a sell-off to remain dominant.

“A small negative candle was formed on the daily chart which indicates a narrow range movement in Nifty 50 over the last few sessions near the crucial support of 24,500 levels. This is not a good sign and suggests that the said support could eventually be broken decisively on the downside in the near term,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities

According to him, the underlying trend of Nifty 50 continues to be weak amidst choppy movement, and a sharp breakdown of the support of 24,500 could trigger a quick decline down to the next support of 24,200 levels (200day EMA). Immediate resistance placed at 24,800.

Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities, noted that the 9-EMA and 20-EMA, which previously provided dynamic support, have now turned into immediate resistance levels, with the gap between them steadily widening. However, the 100-EMA, currently placed at 24,450, is gradually approaching and may act as an immediate cushion if selling intensifies.

“On the downside, 24,450 may serve as immediate support. A breakdown below this could open the gates toward the 24,378, potentially intensifying the corrective move. The advance-decline ratio continues to weaken, reflecting a lack of broad-based participation and highlighting that any short-term pullback is being executed with caution,” Mehra said.

Dr. Praveen Dwarakanath, Vice President of Hedged.in said that the momentum indicators are well below the oversold region, suggesting a possible reversal.

“The options writer’s data shows increased call writing at the 24,600 levels; however, a panic short cover of the sold calls can cause the markets to see a quick rally. The RBI policy holding the interest rates at the same level is reflected in the price yesterday, as not much of a fall came in, indicating a bounce in the index,” said Dwarakanath.

Bank Nifty index rose 50.90 points, or 0.09%, to close at 55,411.15 on Wednesday, forming a small-bodied candle that oscillated within a narrow range.

“Bank Nifty index is currently trading below its 20-day and 50-day EMAs, both of which are in a declining trajectory — a sign of short-term weakness. While the rising slope of the 100 and 200-day EMAs has slowed down significantly. On the momentum front, the RSI on the daily chart is in the bearish zone and continues to trend downward, suggesting weakening price strength and a lack of buying interest,” said Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

Going ahead, Shah expects the 100-day EMA zone of 55,000 - 54,900 will act as immediate support for the index, and any sustainable move below the level of 54,900 will lead to further correction upto the 54,400 level. While on the upside, the zone of 55,800 - 55,900 will act as a crucial hurdle for the index.

Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivative Research, Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates Ltd. said that the Bank Nifty defended the support of 55,150 and formed a green candle of a daily scale, indicating strength.

“If the Bank Nifty index manages to hold 55,150 level, then a pullback towards 55,800 - 56,000 could be possible. On the flip side, a firm break below 55,150 could lead to further weakness in the Bank Nifty index. Therefore, traders are advised to keep watch on above technical levels, for potential trending opportunities,” said Yedve.

Bajaj Broking Research noted that the Bank Nifty formed a small bullish candle, which remained within the previous session’s price range, indicating ongoing consolidation amid stock-specific movements.

“On the upside, resistance is seen in the 56,300 – 56,500 range, which corresponds to the lower boundary of the recent breakdown zone. A sustained move above this level would be an early indication of weakening bearish momentum or a potential pause in the current downtrend. Overall, the index is expected to trade within a defined range of 54,900 to 56,400 in the near term, with a clear directional move likely only after a decisive breakout from this range,” said the brokerage house.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.

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