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Oil prices to stay at $80-85; ONGC, Oil India to benefit, OMCs at risk: ICICI SecuritiesProbal Sen, Oil and Gas Analyst at ICICI Securities, said the current environment is favourable for upstream companies such as ONGC and Oil India. He noted that their valuations are still factoring in lower crude prices, leaving room for upside. If oil holds around $80–85 per barrel, earnings could see a meaningful 17–18% upgrade in standalone EPS for both companies.By Nigel D'Souza   |  Reema Tendulkar   |  Prashant Nair  April 21, 2026, 10:00:57 AM IST (Published)2 Min ReadCrude oil prices may not fall back to earlier levels anytime soon, and the market could be entering a phase of structurally higher prices, according to Probal Sen, Oil and Gas Analyst at ICICI Securities.

He believes the base for crude has shifted upwards due to supply disruptions and ongoing geopolitical tensions. “We believe that $80-85 would be the new normal, at least for the next 12 months or so,” Sen said in a conversation with CNBC-TV18.

The key reason is persistent supply tightness. Damage to multiple energy facilities and delays in restoring output mean that even if the situation improves, prices are unlikely to drop sharply. A risk premium is also expected to remain built into oil prices for the foreseeable future.

Brent crude slipped to around $94–95 per barrel as markets expect the US and Iran to restart peace talks this week, which could ease supply concerns.

This environment is positive for upstream companies like ONGC and Oil India. Current valuations, according to Sen, are still factoring in much lower crude prices.

If oil sustains around $80–85 per barrel, earnings could see a meaningful 17-18% upgrade on the standalone EPS for both companies. He added, “I can only tell you that most of the EPS, continues to build in anywhere between $65 to 75 of realisations. And as I said, if you have a $10 increment on this level, you have around a 13 to 14% increment in standalone EPS.”

However, there is a catch. If crude rises too sharply, the risk of government intervention through windfall taxes increases. Ironically, a more stable price environment could be more favourable for these companies.

For oil marketing companies (OMCs), the situation remains challenging. Higher crude prices hurt marketing margins, especially when retail fuel prices are not adjusted.

Sen pointed out that OMC stocks could still see some downside before stabilising. Historically, during major crises, these stocks have corrected to about 0.7–0.8 times book value.

At the same time, balance sheets are much stronger now compared to previous cycles. Lower debt levels and better cash flows could help companies absorb losses for longer.

Still, recovery will depend on either a correction in crude prices or an increase in retail fuel prices.

For the entire discussion, watch the accompanying video

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