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Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty are expected to open on a cautious note on Thursday, with the market’s direction likely to be shaped by a convergence of global and domestic factors — including renewed U.S.-Brazil trade tensions, Federal Reserve’s FOMC minutes, TCS Q1 earnings, and a packed IPO calendar.

At 6:32 AM, GIFT Nifty futures were trading 13 points higher at 25,571, indicating a flat to marginally positive start for Indian equities.

Asian markets were mixed in early trade. Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.39 per cent, while Topix declined 0.48 per cent. In contrast, South Korea’s Kospi advanced 0.91 per cent, and Australia’s ASX 200 rose 0.65 per cent.

Investor sentiment was impacted after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a tariff hike on Brazilian imports to 50 per cent from 10 per cent, effective August 1, citing an “unfair” trade relationship and linking the move to Brazil’s legal action against former President Jair Bolsonaro.

Meanwhile, the Fed’s June FOMC minutes signaled a potential rate cut later this year, though views among policymakers were split. The Fed acknowledged that while tariff-driven inflation may be transitory, geopolitical and trade risks remain a concern.

U.S. markets ended on a strong note. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.94 per cent, closing at a record 20,611.34. The S&P 500 rose 0.61 per cent, and the Dow Jones added 0.49 per cent.

Traders will also be watching out for the release of U.S. initial jobless claims data later today.

On the domestic front, investors will focus on the Q1 earnings season, kicking off with Tata Consultancy Services (TCS). Other firms reporting results today include Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency, Tata Elxsi, Anand Rathi Wealth, GTPL Hathway, and several smaller players.

Institutional flows: DII buying outpaces FIIs

Data from July 9 shows that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net buyers to the tune of Rs 74.48 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought Rs 1,037.19 crore worth of shares — highlighting strong domestic participation ahead of earnings season.

The IPO market remains active, with Happy Square Outsourcing Services, White Force, and Cryogenic OGS listing today. Subscriptions continue for Asston Pharmaceuticals and CFF Fluid Control, while GLEN Industries enters Day 3 of its offering.

Meanwhile, investors await allotment updates for Travel Food Services, Smarten Power Systems, and Chemkart India IPOs.

In commodities, gold prices dipped to their lowest in over a week as a firmer U.S. dollar pressured bullion. Spot gold eased 0.1 per cent to $3,297.19, while U.S. gold futures fell 0.3 per cent.

Oil prices held steady after the EIA reported a surprise build in U.S. crude inventories, even as geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea simmered. Brent crude was at $70.19, and WTI crude closed at $68.38.

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