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Indian equities may open on a positive note Tuesday, tracking a near 100-point rise in GIFT Nifty futures and steady global cues. Despite geopolitical jitters and weak Monday performance, hopes of a dovish RBI policy and resilient domestic macros are likely to lend support to the market.

GIFT Nifty signals rebound; Asia mixed, US tech rally lends support

As of 7:00 am, GIFT Nifty futures on NSE IX were trading 96.50 points higher at 24,866.50, indicating a positive start for benchmark indices. Global cues remain mixed with tech-led gains in the US but subdued moves in Asia.

Dow: Flat

S&P 500: Up 0.4%

Nasdaq: Up 0.7%

Japan’s Topix: Flat

Hang Seng futures: Up 0.5%

Australia’s ASX 200: Up 0.6%

S&P 500 futures were down 0.2% in early Asian trade, while Euro Stoxx 50 futures remained unchanged, indicating cautious optimism ahead of key macro triggers.

Technical view: Nifty support at 24,500–24,550; watch for breakout above 25,070

Analysts say Nifty remains in a consolidation phase. Immediate support lies at 24,500–24,550, while a breach of 25,070 is needed for bullish momentum to return. The 20-day EMA near 24,630 will also act as a crucial floor.

India VIX rose 6.8% to 17.16 on Monday, hinting at rising volatility ahead of the RBI monetary policy meet.

Macro boost: Rupee firms up, oil and gold edge higher

The rupee closed at 85.39 against the dollar on Monday, appreciating by 16 paise. A weaker dollar and falling US yields have boosted safe-haven gold, now near a four-week high. Oil prices, meanwhile, climbed on supply concerns driven by Canadian wildfires and geopolitical tensions with Iran.

FII-DII flow: FIIs net sell Rs 2,589 cr, DIIs buy Rs 5,314 cr

Foreign Institutional Investors continued their cautious stance, net selling equities worth Rs 2,589 crore. However, Domestic Institutional Investors provided strong support with net purchases worth Rs 5,314 crore. FII net short positions in index futures rose to Rs 89,066 crore.

Stocks in F&O ban

Manappuram remains in the F&O ban list after crossing 95% of the market-wide position limit.

What to watch today

RBI monetary policy cues

Geopolitical developments

Crude oil and dollar index movement

Potential breakout levels for Nifty and Bank Nifty

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