Published on 09/02/2026 08:03 AM
CITI
Buy, TP raised to ₹1265
Core earnings surpassed expectations, underpinned by robust credit growth (15.6% YoY/6% QoQ), NIMs at 2.99% (vs 2.97% qoq), opex efficiency reflected in curtailed opex growth (6% YoY/-1% QoQ) & well-contained credit cost at 0.4%
This operational outperformance was augmented by Rs22bn dividend income, Rs33bn treasury gains, ₹26bn of recoveries from write-off accounts, which boosted RoA to 1.19%.
Broad-based growth momentum across SME/Corporate/Agri/Xpress Credit has emboldened mgmt to again raise credit growth guidance upwards to 13-15% for FY26.
NIMs are expected to sustain at or above 3%, and disciplined underwriting/credit protocols, alongside recoveries, should support robust asset quality.
Jefferies
Buy, TP raised to ₹1300
Q3 profit of ₹210bn, +24% YoY, was ahead of est. with higher other income & lower credit costs.
Improvement in loan (gross) growth to 15%, peer-group leading NII growth of 9%, healthy fee growth of 16% and low credit costs were positives
Deposit growth stays low at 9% and, while domestic LDR at 73% has headroom, the need to lift deposit growth will limit NIM upsides
Nuvama
Buy, TP Raised to ₹1250
Strong core earnings in Q3 with a solid 6% QoQ loan growth, strong 5% QoQ NII growth and lower-than-expected opex.
PAT was 10% higher than consensus, driven by a special dividend of ₹22bn from SBI AMC and ₹7.7bn of interest on tax refunds.
Reported NIM rose 2bp QoQ while core NIM ex refund fell 1bp. RoA was 1.2%.
SBI’s core earnings are stronger than private banks for the third consecutive quarter, with stable NIM, higher than sector loan growth and strong fees.
FY26 loan growth guidance revised from 12–14% to 13–15%. NIM will be above 3% in Q4.
Downgrade to hold, TP cut to ₹30,000
Reported 2nd consecutive 10%+ EBITDA miss, with December Quarter EBITDA falling 3% YoY
Miss was led by both weaker vols (+1%YoY) & pricing (-4% QoQ) – even as Co is trying to balance Value vs Vol growth
Now estimate flat volume growth for FY26, implying 55% Cap Uti.
Amid Low CU, Mgmt also refrained from guiding expansion plans beyond the FY26 target of 69MTPA capacity
Cut EBITDA est by 5-6%
Nomura
Buy, TP Rs 220
Strong performance despite weaker pricing
Safeguard measures in the EU and UK to result in improved spreads in FY27F
3QFY26: Standalone EBITDA in line; Europe reports lower-than-expected loss
4QFY26F: Margins to expand on account of stronger HRC pricing
HSBC
Buy, TP Raised to Rs 235
Reported 3Q beat with net debt declining q-o-q
Profitability should improve into 4QFY26 and 1QFY27; India Safeguard and EU CBAM are key medium-term positives
Increase FY27-28e EPS by 5-10%
Jefferies
Buy, TP Rs 240
Q3 EBITDA fell 8% QoQ but was 5% above JEFe, led by India operations
Expect a strong sequential improvement ahead with rising Indian steel prices and potential for Asian spreads to recover from a near 15-year low
Expect EBITDA to rise 24% QoQ in Mar-Q & 30% YoY in FY27
TATA’s 2.2x FY27E PB appears rich, but believe it is justified for a healthy volume growth outlook & improving ROE
Buy, TP raised to Rs 1235
3Q26: Strong all-round performance Better delivery on margins and loan growth vs peers
Strong delivery on NIMs; controlled opex and higher other income drive beat on PAT
Strong and broad-based loan growth; asset quality remains sanguine
At 1.2x Dec-27F BVPS (vs 0.8x in Sep-25), a substantial portion of re-rating has already played out, & believe incremental upside from here should be largely earnings-driven rather than multiple-led.
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