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Ramdeo Agrawal’s Bold Forecast: Indian markets may see steady performance till next Diwali, with banking and consumption sectors likely to drive growth, said Ramdeo Agrawal, Chairman and Co-founder of Motilal Oswal Financial Services, in a special conversation with Anil Singhvi, Managing Editor of Zee Business.

Agrawal said the market may not deliver outsized gains in the next few months but remains structurally positive. “If someone says the market won’t rise for 6–8 months, it doesn’t matter much. The base is strong,” he said, noting that annualized returns may moderate slightly but remain healthy.

He added that foreign investors are again showing interest in India as part of the global “AI play” theme, even as risks from potential U.S. market bubbles remain. “The risk is not in the bubble forming but in it bursting,” Agrawal cautioned.

Agrawal said India’s near-term challenge comes from high U.S. tariffs but expects relief soon. “Trade discussions between Prime Minister Modi and President Trump have been positive. Some tariff relaxation could happen any time,” he added.

He also highlighted that global sentiment toward India is improving, reflected in recent FII buying and rising NAVs across funds.

On the domestic front, Agrawal said banks and financials remain strong. “Earnings estimates have already been revised down. Now, results are holding well, and even festive demand is robust,” he noted. Consumer spending is expected to pick up with rate cuts, tax benefits, and government support. “Public has more money in hand, and this will reflect in consumption growth,” he said.

Discussing e-commerce and digital companies, Agrawal said these firms have matured from loss-making to profit-generating models. “Many of these companies have survived intense competition and built strong franchises. The way Indians buy, invest, and consume has structurally changed,” he explained.

Agrawal expressed a cautious view on IT companies, saying their revenue growth remains limited. “Global demand is slow, and total volume growth is low. For an economy growing 7–8 per cent, IT sector growth should be better,” he said.

When asked about gold and silver’s outlook, Agrawal clarified, “I am an equity fund manager, but personally, I hold gold in my global fund.”

He explained that central banks are accumulating gold as an anti-dollar hedge, unlike silver. “Central banks bought over 1,100–1,200 tonnes of gold last year compared to just 300–400 tonnes a decade ago. Silver can’t be hoarded the same way,” he said.

He called silver “poor man’s gold” and added that gold remains the real hedge against global uncertainty.

Abhay Shukla is a Senior Sub-Editor at Zee Business, where he covers the stock markets, corporate news, personal finance, technology, and auto sectors.

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