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RIL share price drops despite Jio IPO, AI booster at AGM: 4 reasons behind fall — Opportunity to buy?

Published on 30/08/2025 09:19 AM

RIL share price: Like always, Reliance Industries' (RIL) annual general meeting (AGM) was a power-packed event with a slew of announcements ranging from artificial intelligence, new energy expansion and global collaborations to the much-awaited Jio IPO launch.

These announcements reaffirmed the group's ambition for a technology-led transformation and solidified its leadership position across key industries and growth areas of the future.

Mukesh Ambani finally put the dates on value-unlocking by announcing that Jio IPO will hit the Indian stock market in the first half of 2026. According to market analysts, the initial share sale of Jio is expected to be the biggest IPO in India. Furthermore, a PTI report also stated that market pundits are speculating that a 10% share sale could be in the offing.

RIL's focus on artificial intelligence was a major theme. The launch of a new subsidiary, Reliance Intelligence, and a collaboration with Meta signal a strategic pivot toward next-generation technologies. Reliance at the AGM also launched a host of AI-based products. This could create new revenue streams and embed AI across its diverse business portfolio, from retail to energy, said Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart.

The company reiterated its commitment to its New Energy business, with Mukesh Ambani stating it could one day become as large as the O2C business. This highlights RIL's long-term vision and its strategic shift toward sustainable energy.

Isha Ambani also guided that Reliance Retail targets a roughly 20% CAGR over the next three years. Additionally, RCPL will now be a direct subsidiary of RIL with the aim of reaching ₹1 lakh crore revenue within 5 years.

Master Capital Services said that AGM further supports RIL's direction of bridging legacy businesses with new-age tech, with its subsidiaries like Jio and Retail clearly being promoted in Apple-esque fashion as separate engines of growth.

Yet, these big-bang promises by the Mukesh Ambani-led firm failed to cheer Dalal Street investors. Keeping in line with the past trend, here too, the RIL share price tanked over 2% on Friday.

Highlighting the major triggers behind the fall in Reliance shares, analysts listed four major reasons: Historical trend, Jio IPO pipeline, capex-heavy business and weak stock market sentiment.

Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments, said that RIL stock continued in the pattern of drifting down on the AGM day during the last 4 years, and today was no different.

"It appears that the selling is more technical than driven by fundamentals or disappointments on the expectations front," said Vijayakumar.

According to Meena, investor expectations often build up, but the actual announcements, while significant, don't always create the "big surprise" needed to sustain a rally.

While an IPO timeline was confirmed, the target of the first half of 2026 was seen as a delay by some investors who were hoping for a listing in 2025, said Meena. "This tempered the initial excitement and led to a negative reaction," he added.

Harshal Dasani, Business Head at INVAsset PMS, also highlighted that while the Jio listing is a clear catalyst, it is dated to H12026, and while no Retail listing timeline was offered, it dampened sentiment.

As RIL remains capex-heavy (FY25 capex ~ ₹1.31 lakh crore), investors wanted sharper near-term monetisation math alongside the AI and device reveals, according to Dasani, who believes they will need time before any positive EBITDA move.

"The overall market sentiment was weak on the day of the AGM, with a general downtrend influenced by broader economic factors, including foreign institutional investor (FII) selling. This market-wide pressure contributed to the stock's decline," according to Meena, contributing to the stock decline.

The Indian stock market remained under pressure for the third day on Friday, August 29 — the day of the AGM — as additional tariffs of 25% on Indian exports to the US came into effect and foreign investor outflows.

Despite the short-term blip seen in Reliance shares, analysts largely remain bullish on the stock, seeing the current weakness as a buying opportunity.

"While short-term volatility may persist, the company is well-positioned for sustained growth due to its diversified business model and strategic investments. The upcoming IPOs of Jio and Reliance Retail are expected to unlock significant value, and the push into new-age businesses like AI and New Energy will drive future growth," said Meena.

He added that for long-term investors, RIL's strategic initiatives and financial targets present a compelling investment case.

According to Dasani, investors should accumulate RIL shares due to volatility. He advised tracking execution beats and reassessing multiples as listing clarity and AI monetisation translate into numbers.

Dr Vijayakumar also advised that investors should ignore the temporary volatility in the stock price and focus on the long-term potential, which appears very bright.

While the RIL share price has lost 4% in the last one month and 4% in a week, it has delivered 13% returns in past six months.

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.

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