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Silver rate in India has corrected sharply by 45% from its record high amid a stronger dollar and fading expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts, as inflation risks rise due to soaring crude oil prices driven by the US–Iran conflict.

MCX silver May futures are now down 45% down from their record high of ₹4,20,088 per kg hit on 29 January 2026.

The dollar index, which is at 100, gained nearly 3% in March, extending gains to its second consecutive month. The dollar's rise due to an increase in its demand amid elevated crude oil prices is one of the biggest reasons behind the correction in gold and silver prices.

Moreover, the US-Iran war and the resulting rise in energy prices have raised concerns over an inflation flare-up, denting expectations of rate cuts by the US Fed this year, which is also a negative for silver rates.

Experts believe the prevailing condition is challenging for silver prices, and even though they see a near‑term recovery supported by geopolitical uncertainties, there may not be a sustained rise in prices in the near term due to a stronger dollar.

"The near-term outlook remains cautious, with price action largely dependent on the ability to sustain above key resistance levels, while geopolitical developments and macro cues continue to influence market direction," said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.

On the technical front, Ponmudi highlighted that on the upside, the ₹2,32,000 now serves as the immediate resistance for MCX silver, and a sustained move above this could trigger a recovery toward the ₹2,37,000- ₹2,40,000 zone.

On the downside, Ponmudi said a decisive break below ₹2,20,000 may accelerate the decline toward ₹2,15,000, which is a crucial structural support, with further downside potential extending toward the ₹2,00,000– ₹2,05,000 region.

For Comex silver, Ponmudi said the $72–$74 zone remains an immediate resistance band. He believes a sustained and decisive move above $75 would signal strengthening bullish momentum and may lead the prices toward $78-$80, where selling pressure may emerge.

However, a failure to hold above $70 could reintroduce downward pressure, potentially dragging prices toward $66 in the near term, with stronger support placed in the $64–$61 region, said Ponmudi.

Most macro factors, such as geopolitical uncertainties, monetary easing, and concerns over growth, drive gold and silver prices. However, silver prices are also influenced by industrial demand, which makes it more volatile than gold.

The gold-silver ratio is currently around 65 compared to below 45 in January 2026.

According to Amit Goel, Chief Global Strategist at Pace 360, 80 is the pivot point in the gold-silver ratio, and when it falls below 80, silver prices begin to enter the overbought zone.

"The gold-silver ratio is near 65, indicating that silver is in the overbought zone. One should avoid buying the white metal in the current market scenario," said Amit Goel.

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stories by Nishant Kumar

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.Nishant is a market reporter at Mint, where he holds the official designation of Principal Correspondent – Markets. He has been closely tracking the Indian stock market as well as major global stock markets along with the broader macroeconomic trends for a decade.

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