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Tata Motors CV shares get another bullish call; Nomura sees 20% upside, joins BofA, JPMorgan

Published on 22/12/2025 11:42 AM

Tata Motors CV Share Price: Shares of Tata Motors Commercial Vehicles (TMCV) traded higher after global brokerage Nomura initiated coverage on the stock with a ‘Buy’ rating and a price target of Rs 481, implying an upside of around 20 per cent from current levels. The initiation follows the company’s recent demerger, which has sharpened focus on the standalone commercial vehicle business.

Nomura expects the India CV business to benefit from an upcoming upcycle, supported by Tata Motors CV’s dominant 46 per cent market share in the medium and heavy commercial vehicle segment in FY25.

The brokerage estimates volume growth of 10 per cent in FY26 and FY27, followed by 5 per cent growth in FY28. EBITDA margins are projected to expand to 12–13 per cent over FY26–FY28, aided by operating leverage and pricing discipline.

Nomura flagged near-term challenges at the recently acquired Iveco trucks business, purchased for €3.8 billion, noting that the European operations are currently in a downcycle. A recovery is expected only from FY27 onwards. For valuation, Nomura assigned a 12x EV/EBITDA multiple to the core CV business and 4x EV/EBIT to Iveco, citing its smaller scale and lower margins. Over the medium term, the brokerage sees scope for value accretion through synergies across supply chains, product development and new markets.

Last week, BofA Securities and JPMorgan also initiated coverage on Tata Motors CV, citing signs that the commercial vehicle cycle is nearing a bottom in both India and the EU. Both brokerages assigned a ‘Buy’/‘Overweight’ rating with a target price of Rs 475, highlighting steady market share, margin discipline and strong return ratios even during the downturn.

Shares of Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Ltd (TMPV) were trading at Rs 358.55, up 1.67 per cent, at 11:19 am on December 22. Tata Motors CV shares had closed 2.08 per cent lower at Rs 392.70 in the previous session but are up 19 per cent so far in 2025.