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Technical View: Nifty needs to make strong attempt to surpass 24,500, consolidation likely until then as VIX stays above 18

Published on 02/05/2025 05:08 PM

The Nifty 50 moved in both directions and closed a volatile session with moderate gains on May 2, possibly awaiting a trigger to gain solid strength. The index has been forming indecisive patterns for the third consecutive session. Hence, according to experts, it is likely to remain in the range of 24,000–24,500 in the upcoming sessions. A decisive breakout above 24,500 could pave the way for a move toward the 24,800–24,900 zone, while a break below 24,000 may open the door for a decline to 23,850 levels.

The Nifty 50 opened higher at 24,312 and climbed sharply to reach the target of 24,550 (the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the September high to the April low), as well as the upper line of the weekly Bollinger Bands. However, it could not sustain those gains for long, as it erased them in late morning trade, followed by a rangebound session. The index finished at 24,347, up 13 points, and formed a small bullish candlestick pattern with a long upper shadow on the daily chart, indicating selling pressure at higher levels.

“Broadly, it is stuck in the range of 24,000–24,500. Until it decisively breaks out of this range, the consolidation is likely to continue. Stock-specific action is likely to dominate,” said Jatin Gedia, Technical Research Analyst at Mirae Asset – Sharekhan.

Weekly derivatives data also suggest that the Nifty 50 may remain in the 24,000–24,500 range in the near term. The maximum Call open interest is at the 25,000 strike, followed by the 24,500 and 24,800 strikes, with the highest Call writing at the 25,000 strike, then at 24,500 and 24,600. On the Put side, the 24,000 strike holds the maximum open interest, followed by the 23,500 and 24,300 strikes, with the highest Put writing at 24,000, followed by 24,300 and 23,500.

The Nifty 50 gained 1.28 percent during the week, extending its upward trend for the third consecutive week. It formed a bullish candlestick pattern with an upper shadow on the weekly scale, indicating some pressure at higher levels.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty also closed flat at 55,115 (up 28 points), after hitting an intraday high of 55,589 and a low of 55,239. It formed a Doji-like pattern on the daily timeframe. The index traded within the previous week’s range, gained 0.83 percent for the week, and closed near the upper line of the Bollinger Bands. On the weekly chart, it formed a small bullish candlestick pattern with an upper shadow.

According to Amol Athawale, VP – Technical Research at Kotak Securities, the immediate breakout level for traders is 55,800. A move above this level could push the index toward 56,100–56,500. However, if the index falls below 54,700, it could trigger increased selling pressure. Below this level, the index may slip to 54,000–53,700, he said.

Meanwhile, India VIX, the fear index, remained elevated, signaling that bulls should remain cautious. The index rose 6.41 percent during the week to 18.26 and was up 0.19 percent on Friday.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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