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This fund manager explains how to invest when markets feel unpredictableTrupti Agrawal of WhiteOak Capital advises retail investors to prioritise quality businesses and disciplined asset allocation, avoiding short-term market timing.By Anshul  February 17, 2026, 10:09:43 AM IST (Updated)4 Min ReadWith equity markets navigating global rate uncertainty, geopolitical risks and fluctuating capital flows, retail investors must be debating whether to turn cautious or stay invested. Trupti Agrawal, Senior Fund Manager – Equity at WhiteOak Capital Management, believes the answer lies less in predicting the next six months and more in maintaining discipline.

She describes near-term market forecasting as “hardly any different than a coin flip,” arguing that short-term outcomes are inherently unpredictable.

Instead of trying to anticipate market direction, she stresses focusing on identifying quality businesses and holding them at reasonable valuations over time.

Quality and valuation over style labels

Agrawal says WhiteOak’s equity strategy revolves around investing in companies that generate superior returns on incremental capital, have scalable business models, and demonstrate strong execution and governance standards.

Rather than taking top-down sectoral or thematic calls, the fund house builds portfolios through bottom-up stock selection. Sector overweights and underweights emerge as a result of company-level opportunities, not macro views.

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For retail investors, this has a practical takeaway: portfolio outcomes should ideally stem from business fundamentals and valuations rather than from style rotations between “growth” and “value” or from tactical sector bets.

She adds that maintaining a balanced portfolio is a key risk-management tool. This approach seeks to reduce the impact of non-stock-specific factors such as market timing, currency movements or abrupt sector rotations.

Defensive or aggressive? Stay consistent

On whether the current macro backdrop warrants a defensive tilt, Agrawal points out that markets are never free of concerns. Global rate cycles, commodity prices, or domestic policy changes are constant variables.

From a personal finance perspective, she advises investors to first determine an appropriate equity allocation in consultation with a financial adviser—and then adhere to it. Frequently shifting strategies in response to volatility or media headlines can undermine long-term wealth creation.

For those looking at dynamic allocation strategies, she notes that the WhiteOak Capital Balanced Advantage Fund follows a countercyclical asset allocation framework based on an in-house model. Such funds aim to systematically increase or reduce equity exposure depending on valuations and market conditions, though she emphasises that allocation decisions should align with individual risk profiles.

How much should investors worry about global cues?

Global factors such as US Federal Reserve policy, crude oil prices and geopolitical events often dominate market conversations. Agrawal explains that US rate decisions typically influence emerging markets like India through four main channels: dollar strength, funding costs, global risk appetite and portfolio flows.

A rate cut in the US, for example, can ease global financial conditions and potentially support capital flows into emerging markets. However, she cautions that even when macro events are correctly anticipated, actual market reactions often diverge from logical expectations.

Because of this unpredictability, she says the firm treats macro as a source of risk to manage rather than an avenue for generating alpha through market timing or sector rotation. The preferred approach remains staying invested in attractively valued businesses within a diversified portfolio.

SIPs over lump sum in volatile phases

On the choice between lump-sum investments and systematic investment plans (SIPs), Agrawal reiterates that SIPs remain a prudent route for most retail investors, regardless of market phase.

SIPs enable staggered capital deployment and help reduce the risk of investing large sums at unfavourable levels. She acknowledges that in volatile or range-bound markets, early returns from a long-term SIP may appear modest.

However, historical experience suggests that SIPs that underperform in the initial years have, on average, delivered stronger outcomes over longer horizons.

She also highlights the role of SIP top-ups, which allow investors to increase contributions in line with income growth, strengthening long-term compounding.

ALSO READ | Home loan tax deductions: Key tips for first-time buyersContinue ReadingNote To ReadersDisclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers should consult certified experts before making any investment decisions.First Published: Feb 17, 2026 10:08 AM ISTTagsinvestmentsmutual fundsShare marketSIP