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The Nifty 50 extended its downtrend for a second consecutive session, while selling pressure continued for a third straight day in the Bank Nifty on April 25. However, the broader trend remains positive; hence, experts advise a "buy on dips" approach. In case of a rebound, the Nifty 50 is likely to climb toward the 24,200–24,350 zone. However, if geopolitical tensions escalate and the index decisively breaks below 23,800 (February swing high), the selling pressure may intensify, potentially extending to the 23,300 level. Overall, the trend remains strong as long as the Bank Nifty holds above 54,000 (support) on a closing basis, while 55,000–55,500 is seen as the immediate resistance zone.

On Friday, April 25, the Nifty 50 closed at 24,039, down 207 points (0.86 percent), and the Bank Nifty declined 537 points (0.97 percent) to 54,664, with negative market breadth. A total of 2,228 shares witnessed selling pressure compared to 341 advancing shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Rajesh Bhosale, Technical Analyst at Angel One

Following an impressive 12 percent rally from April’s swing lows, the Nifty entered overbought territory, making a correction likely. Given the strong uptrend, a time-wise correction seemed more probable; however, geopolitical uncertainty triggered a sharper price correction instead. Despite this, the overall structure remains positive.

By surpassing the February–March swing highs, the Nifty has confirmed a strong bullish breakout on the charts. The breakout zone around 23,900–23,800 provided crucial support on Friday and continues to act as a key pivotal level. If geopolitical tensions escalate or this support is breached, a deeper correction toward the 23,500–23,300 zone could unfold. On the upside, while the broader trend remains bullish, immediate resistance is seen at 24,250–24,350. A move above this zone would confirm a continuation of the primary uptrend. Traders should stay cautious and monitor these key levels, as the next leg of the move may not be as smooth as the recent rally.

Key Resistance: 24,250, 24,350

Key Support: 23,900, 23,800

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on a dip around 23,850–23,800, with a stop-loss at 23,670, targeting 24,250 / 24,350.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities

Last week, the Nifty index settled with a gain of 188 points and formed a small bullish candle with an upper shadow, indicating selling pressure near the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from 26,277 to 21,744 (between September 24 and April 25), at 24,550. The index is now approaching key resistance zones at 24,550 and 24,850 (swing highs from December 2024). On the downside, 23,850 is expected to act as a crucial support level, as it coincides with a bullish gap area (23,872–23,903) and a previous resistance level turned support, in line with the principle of polarity.

A sustained move above 24,200 may trigger fresh buying interest, paving the way toward 24,550–24,700. Conversely, a drop below 24,000 could lead to profit booking, potentially dragging the index down to the 23,850–23,500 range. For the upcoming week, the Nifty is anticipated to trade within a range of 24,700 to 23,500, with a mixed outlook. Additionally, the weekly RSI remains above its reference line, reinforcing the positive momentum.

Key Resistance: 24,200, 24,350

Key Support: 23,900, 23,750

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures around 23,900 with a stop-loss at 23,800, targeting 24,250–24,350.

Ajit Mishra, SVP - Research at Religare Broking

Looking ahead, the sharp rebound over the past three weeks has been nearly vertical, indicating the potential for some consolidation before the next major directional move. It is crucial for the Nifty to hold the 23,800 level to maintain its bullish bias. A breach of this level could trigger extended profit-taking, with the next significant support around 23,400—where key moving averages like the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs converge. On the upside, a decisive breakout above 24,400 could reignite bullish momentum, potentially driving the index toward the 24,800 mark.

Key Resistance: 24,400, 24,800

Key Support: 23,400, 23,800

Strategy: Continue with a “buy on dips” approach using options strategies, as long as Nifty holds above the 23,800 level, while being mindful of potential choppiness in the near term.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Rajesh Bhosale, Technical Analyst at Angel One

Following the sharp up move over the past two weeks, this corrective phase appears healthy and should not be mistaken for a trend reversal. Rather, it presents an opportunity to consider fresh long positions near well-established support zones. From a technical standpoint, the index remains in a primary uptrend, reinforced by the recent record high. As long as the price sustains above the crucial 54,000 zone on a closing basis—an area that previously acted as resistance and now coincides with a bullish gap—there is no structural change in the prevailing trend. On the flip side, while the 56,000 level remains a significant hurdle, the 55,000–55,500 zone is now seen as immediate resistance.

Key Resistance: 55,000, 55,500

key Support: 54,000, 53,300

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on a dip around 54,000, with a stop-loss at 53,600, targeting 55,350 / 55,500.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities

Bank Nifty closed last week with gains of 374 points and formed a small bearish candle with a long upper shadow, indicating selling pressure near the 56,000 mark. The index is expected to consolidate between 56,000 and 54,000. Importantly, 54,400 is a key support level, as it coincides with a bullish gap (54,400–54,675), the September 2024 swing high, and the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement level of the April 2025 rally (49,157–56,099), which lies around 54,497.

A decisive move above 55,000 could trigger renewed buying interest, potentially pushing the index toward 55,500–56,000. Conversely, a breach below 54,400 may lead to selling pressure, dragging the index down toward 54,000–53,500. For the upcoming week, Bank Nifty is expected to trade within a range of 56,000 to 53,500, with a mixed bias. The weekly RSI is trending higher and remains above the reference line, signaling strong momentum.

Key Resistance: 54,850, 55,200

Key Support: 54,400, 54,100

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty Futures near 54,850 with a stop-loss at 55,000, targeting 54,400–54,200.

Ajit Mishra, SVP - Research at Religare Broking

Some consolidation may occur in the Bank Nifty after the steep rally from 49,000 to 56,000 over the past three weeks. Nevertheless, the broader tone remains positive, supported by a breakout from a nine-month-long consolidation range (47,700–54,000). In case of a pullback, buying interest is expected to emerge around the 52,800–53,700 zone, which aligns with the neckline of the breakout and the support of the short-term 20-day EMA. On the upside, the index has the potential to retest recent highs, with immediate targets at 55,500 and then 57,000.

Key Resistance: 55,500, 57,000

Key Support: 53,700, 52,800

Strategy: In line with the benchmark, consider initiating long positions near the support zones while keeping them hedged. We maintain our preference for private banking majors and recommend a selective approach toward PSU banks.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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