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UBS warns this defence stock may drop 12%—Is it in your portfolio?

Published on 17/11/2025 01:53 PM

Bharat Forge Share Price: Shares of Bharat Forge traded at Rs 1,384.40, down 0.88% on Monday. The stock has gained over 12% in the past month, but brokerage firm UBS expects the counter to give up those gains, according to its note. UBS maintained its Sell rating on the company while raising the target price to Rs 1,230.

UBS said Bharat Forge’s second-quarter performance showed weak trends in the autos segment, while the defence business remained strong. The brokerage noted that margins benefited from disciplined cost control. However, it highlighted that the near-term outlook remains tepid.

UBS listed key takeaways from the management call:

- The company is prioritising growth in its India business, with expansion plans through inorganic opportunities.

- The defence order book stands at Rs 11 billion, excluding a Rs 1.4 billion domestic carbine order.

- Evaluation of EU steel restructuring is underway, with clarity expected by the end of FY26.

- The management expects Q3FY26 to stay soft, with recovery likely from Q4FY26.

- Aerospace growth is expected to remain strong, rising about 40% in FY26 with similar growth rates seen over the next 3–4 years.

- The defence segment currently contributes around 10–12% of the business, with plans to raise this to the mid-20s by FY30.

Bharat Forge Ltd.’s profit rose 23% to Rs 299.20 crore in the second quarter of this financial year, compared to Rs 243.59 crore in the previous quarter, the company said in a stock exchange filing on Tuesday.

Revenue grew 9.3% year-on-year to Rs 4,031.93 crore for the three months ended September. Ebitda rose 12% year-on-year to Rs 725.66 crore, and the Ebitda margin improved to 18%.

Consolidated (YoY) performance

- Revenue up 9.3% to Rs 4,031.93 crore versus Rs 3,688.51 crore.

- Net profit up 23% to Rs 299.20 crore versus Rs 243.59 crore.

- Ebitda up 12% to Rs 725.66 crore versus Rs 647.28 crore.

- Margin at 18.0% versus 17.5%.

The company received in-principle approval to raise up to Rs 2,000 crore through term loans, non-convertible debentures or other debt instruments. It secured new orders worth Rs 1,582 crore in the first half of the financial year, including Rs 559 crore from defence. The defence order book stood at Rs 9,467 crore as of the first half.

Abhay Shukla is a Senior Sub-Editor at Zee Business, where he covers the stock markets, corporate news, personal finance, technology, and auto sectors.

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