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US President Donald Trump has set his sights on Ukraine’s vast underground wealth, describing the country’s mineral resources as potentially “worth trillions of dollars.” On Wednesday, the United States and Ukraine signed a deal that could lay the groundwork for joint investments in minerals, oil, gas, and other natural resources—marking a new phase in the countries’ economic and strategic partnership.

As reported by The Washington Post, the agreement will establish the United States–Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund to accelerate Ukraine’s recovery and economic development, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. It signals a long-term strategic alignment between the two nations, though the deal’s success depends heavily on surmounting major hurdles in security, infrastructure, and economic viability.

Rich in resources, but hard to extract

Ukraine is known to contain significant deposits of lithium, graphite, uranium, and titanium—minerals deemed “critical” by the US Geological Survey for their importance to clean energy, defense, and technology. However, the extent of these resources remains uncertain, with much of the geological mapping dating back to the Soviet era.

Willy Shih, a Harvard economist and expert on global supply chains, noted that developing new mines for critical minerals could take a decade or more. “It’s a capital-intensive business, and it’s a long-term project,” he said. Analysts say that even if the minerals are present in significant quantities, turning them into usable materials—especially titanium sponge or battery-grade graphite—requires energy-intensive, costly, and environmentally sensitive processing.

Challenges on the ground

A major obstacle to mineral development is geography: nearly 40% of Ukraine’s critical mineral reserves lie in Russian-occupied territory, including parts of Donbas. According to SecDev, a geopolitical risk firm cited by The Washington Post, this includes valuable deposits of titanium and uranium.

Even in areas under Kyiv’s control, infrastructure remains a challenge. Ukraine’s lone titanium sponge plant, Zaporizhzhia Titanium-Magnesium, has ceased operations due to its proximity to the front lines. The country does not currently extract lithium despite large reserves, in part because the type of lithium-bearing rock—petalite—is more expensive to process.

Similarly, graphite mining is outdated. The Soviet-era Zavallivsky mine, for instance, has not been modernized since the Cold War. Transforming its output into high-grade material suitable for electric vehicle batteries would require additional costly steps.

Political momentum meets economic reality

Trump’s administration has championed critical mineral independence, particularly as a way to counter China’s dominance in global supply chains. He has referenced mineral wealth in geopolitical discussions ranging from Canada to Greenland, and now sees Ukraine as a potential strategic asset.

At a contentious Oval Office meeting in February with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US Vice President JD Vance, Trump reportedly pressed for Ukraine’s mineral wealth to be used to “repay” the costs of US aid. Despite tensions, the deal eventually moved forward, with Ukrainian Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko calling it a commitment to “Ukraine’s security, recovery, and reconstruction.”

Still, the business case remains shaky. “There’s a reason there’s not a massive influx of new production outside of China,” said Alex Jacquez, a former White House industrial policy advisor, citing cost, regulation, and technical barriers.

Titanium: A strategic prize with high barriers

Ukraine’s titanium potential is a particular focus, with officials claiming the country could hold up to 20% of the global supply. But estimates vary, and processing ilmenite ore into usable titanium alloys remains complex. The US ceased domestic production of titanium sponge in 2020 due to high costs, leaving a strategic gap that Ukraine could theoretically help fill.

One Ukrainian firm, Velta, is testing new techniques for processing titanium more efficiently. Matthew Murray, a former Obama administration official who chairs Velta’s advisory board, hopes US investment will help the project scale. “Trump clearly has in mind that he wants to be able to compete with China more effectively,” he said.

Minerals, yes — but not a quick fix

While oil and gas may offer shorter-term opportunities, most critical mineral ventures in Ukraine will require years of exploration, investment, and infrastructure. “Ukraine has significant mineral potential, but how large that potential is, we simply don’t know,” said Rod Eggert of the Colorado School of Mines.

In the long run, Ukraine’s mineral resources may indeed become a pillar of Western supply chains. But for now, they remain largely underground—both literally and figuratively.

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