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US-China Trade Talks: What does it mean for Indian stock market? Anil Singhvi explains big picture

Published on 27/10/2025 09:45 AM

Stock Market Today: Global markets started the week with optimism as hopes of a breakthrough in trade talks between the United States and China lifted investor sentiment.

Speaking on the latest developments from the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur, Zee Business Managing Editor Anil Singhvi explained how renewed dialogue between the two superpowers could shape global trade dynamics and what it means for Indian markets.

At the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur, US President Donald Trump and Brazilian President Lula da Silva were seen actively engaging in discussions, drawing attention from the global media.

However, the more significant takeaway came from the sidelines, where US and Chinese trade representatives, including key negotiator Scott Bessent, reportedly made progress on framing a trade deal.

Singhvi noted that this was an encouraging signal for global markets. “A framework for a trade agreement between the US and China has reportedly been finalised, and there is a strong possibility that both Presidents, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, will meet in South Korea later this month to sign the deal,” he said.

This potential breakthrough has already had a visible impact on market sentiment, with Dow Futures turning stronger following reports that the US might reconsider its plan to impose a 100 per cent tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1.

According to Singhvi, any progress toward a US-China trade deal is not just a bilateral win but a major relief for the global economy.

“Two of the world’s largest trading nations moving toward an agreement brings certainty back to global trade. When big economies like these find common ground, it benefits markets everywhere,” he explained.

Singhvi emphasised that prolonged friction between Washington and Beijing had created uncertainty across sectors — from manufacturing to commodities — and easing tensions could boost investor confidence worldwide.

On how the talks could affect India, Singhvi offered a balanced view. “There are two sides to this story for India — one positive and one negative,” he said.

On the negative side, Singhvi warned that if the US successfully concludes a deal with China, Washington may increase pressure on India to finalise its own trade commitments.

“The US could say, look, even China has reached a deal; now it’s your turn. So yes, some diplomatic and trade pressure on India is possible,” he pointed out.

On the positive side, he said that if the US softens its stance toward China, its biggest rival, it could become easier for India to negotiate favourable terms.

“If America can make peace with China, then with India, talks will be smoother and more flexible. We could benefit from a more balanced trade environment,” Singhvi observed.

He also mentioned that any US-China deal would set a benchmark tariff level, giving India a clearer sense of what kind of terms to expect in future trade discussions.

For Dalal Street, Singhvi said the latest developments bring a sense of relief and cautious optimism. “Markets thrive on clarity, and a global trade deal restores that clarity. Even partial progress between the US and China supports global equities, including India,” he said.

However, he cautioned that investors should wait for concrete confirmation from the Trump-Xi meeting before turning fully bullish.

At 9:29 am on October 27, 2025, Indian markets were trading higher, with the BSE Sensex rising 312.98 points or 0.37 per cent to 84,524.86, while the Nifty 50 gained 93.50 points or 0.36 per cent to 25,888.65, indicating a positive start to the week for investors.

“Whether the deal happens through pressure or partnership doesn’t matter; what matters is that it happens soon. A confirmed trade understanding between the US and China will be the biggest boost to global and Indian markets in months,” Singhvi concluded.

As global diplomacy unfolds, Dalal Street will be watching every headline from Kuala Lumpur and Seoul, where the next chapter of the US-China trade story could define market sentiment for weeks to come.

Anubhav Maurya is a Senior Sub-Editor at Zee Business, focusing on the stock market, personal finance, corporate news, and related sectors.

He has previously worked wi