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US stocks diverged on Wednesday in the countdown to the end of Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, overwhelmingly expected to usher in the first US interest rate cut of 2025. The Dow Jones Industrial Average moved up nearly 0.7%, while the S&P 500 nudged down 0.1%, Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell over 0.5%.

The US Federal Reserve’s “dot plot” is one of the most closely watched charts in global markets, providing a snapshot of policymakers’ expectations for future interest rates. The chart is published quarterly as part of the central bank’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent previously agreed to occupy two different houses at the same time as his “principal residence,” Bloomberg News reported, an agreement similar to one President Donald Trump has called mortgage fraud in his unprecedented bid to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. Source: Reuters

Tensions between US President Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve have dominated headlines in recent months and before the central bank’s key policy decision tonight. On August 1, Trump blasted Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Truth Social, calling him “stubborn” for keeping rates steady despite easing inflation. He went further, urging the Fed’s board of governors to seize control of interest rate decisions if Powell doesn’t “substantially” cut borrowing costs. The Fed has so far held rates at 4.33% this year, citing tariff-driven inflation risks. With inflation at 2.6%, markets await Powell’s remarks for clues on the easing path ahead.

Matthew Luzzetti, chief US economist for Deutsche Bank, said a path for more rate cuts would likely be driven by “risk management considerations,” with greater downside risks to the labor market and more limited upside risks to inflation. Luzzetti expects three cuts in total this year, with little change to Fed officials’ economic outlook for slow growth, higher inflation, and modestly higher unemployment.

The last dot plot, released in June, revealed a consensus among Fed officials for two cuts this year amid uncertainties about how the Trump administration’s policies on tariffs, immigration, and taxes would impact the economy.

Stocks could take a hit if the US Federal Reserve turns out to be less friendly to rate cuts than investors expect, according to Subadra Rajappa, head of US rates at Societe Generale. Speaking on CNBC’s Fast Money on Tuesday, she said markets may “unwind” if traders realise the Fed won’t cut rates as aggressively as they’re hoping. The Fed is set to give more clarity on its plans this week when it publishes its “dot plot” — a chart showing where policymakers see interest rates heading in the future.

At its July meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signalled that future policy decisions would depend heavily on the state of the labour market. Since then, data has shown clear signs of weakening. Hiring has slowed, unemployment claims have risen, and the overall jobless rate has edged higher.

These developments have reinforced expectations that the Fed will cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point. Investors believe easing policy could help cushion the economy against labour market stress and sustain growth momentum.

US stocks were mixed on Wednesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s closely watched policy decision and, more importantly, its outlook for the path of interest rates.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average bucked the trend, adding 254 points, or 0.5%, to close higher.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged nearly 300 points in early trading Wednesday as investors positioned ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq slipped, led by a 2.5% drop in Nvidia shares after reports that China had banned its RTX Pro 6000D AI chips. CEO Jensen Huang expressed disappointment over the move, noting broader US-China tensions are affecting Nvidia’s operations in the country. here

In another setback for the housing market, both building permits and new construction fell short of forecasts in August.

The numbers suggest continued softness in the sector, adding to concerns about the broader economic outlook.

Shortly after the 9:30 a.m. ET open on Wednesday, US markets were mostly flat. The S&P 500 edged up 0.1%, the Nasdaq slipped less than 0.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 164 points, or 0.4%, as investors awaited the Fed’s policy announcement.

According to CME FedWatch, 96.2% of market participants expect a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut on September 17. Many see this as paving the way for another RBI repo rate cut when its monetary policy panel meets on Mumbai’s Mint Street three weeks later.India’s rates are already at a three-year low after a 50-basis-point cut in June. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the panel front-loaded cuts to boost growth. More deets here

Investors are holding back as markets await the Fed’s pivot to easing, signaled last month by Chair Powell. A cooling labor market is expected to prompt the central bank to trim rates, even as inflation ticks higher.

Traders see a 96% chance of a 25-basis-point cut and a small 4% chance of a larger move when the decision drops at 2:00 p.m. ET. US stock futures remained flat Wednesday as the countdown to the Fed’s policy announcement continues.

The Federal Reserve cut rates three times last year on concerns about weakening job gains and rising unemployment — the same backdrop it faces now.

Markets expect borrowing costs to ease further after this week’s decision. Mortgage rates have already declined in anticipation, and additional cuts in October and December could lower rates on home loans, car loans, and credit cards.

The Senate on September 15, confirmed President Donald Trump’s nominee Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve’s board of governors, just a day before the two-day policy meeting.Miran, who chairs the White House Council of Economic Advisers, fills the seat vacated by former Fed Governor Adriana Kugler in August. He and Governor Lisa Cook will both vote at this month’s meeting.His appointment has fuelled concerns over the Fed’s independence, given Trump’s repeated calls for steeper rate cuts and his push to tilt the board’s composition.

US stock futures were little changed on Wednesday as traders awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and guidance on the path ahead.

S&P 500 futures slipped 0.1%, Nasdaq-100 futures hovered near the flatline, and Dow futures fell 28 points, or less than 0.1%.

In premarket trade, Nvidia shares dropped 1.3% after the Financial Times reported that China has barred domestic tech firms from purchasing the company’s chips.

Gold prices retreated from peak levels in Delhi on Wednesday as investors booked profits ahead of the US Fed’s policy outcome. According to the All India Sarafa Association, gold of 99.5% purity fell ₹1,300 to ₹1,13,300 per 10 grams, while 99.9% purity traded at ₹1,13,800.

The yellow metal had surged to lifetime highs on Tuesday — ₹1,15,100 (99.9% purity) and ₹1,14,600 (99.5% purity). Traders said the pullback reflects caution as markets await clarity on whether the Fed’s rate cut marks the start of a deeper easing cycle.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell faces a brutal balancing act as he steps into today’s press conference. He must acknowledge the political noise without appearing swayed by it, while giving investors clarity on whether the rate cut is merely a one-off insurance move—or the beginning of a deeper easing cycle.

As Bank of America’s senior US economist Aditya Bhave told Bloomberg: “Every cut is more difficult than the previous cut unless the labour market shows signs of continued deterioration.”

For Powell, the risks are stark. Cut too little, and the jobs slump could deepen. Cut too much, and inflation might roar back.

A softer US dollar has lifted both Bitcoin and gold, but their drivers differ. Nik Bhatia, founder of The Bitcoin Layer, noted that Bitcoin behaves more like the S&P 500, responding to US liquidity and credit conditions, while gold reacts to global trade and monetary disruptions.For gold, the case is clear: a weaker dollar makes it cheaper for overseas buyers, while lower interest rates enhance its appeal as a non-yielding store of value. More deets hereUS stock futures were largely flat on Wednesday as investors counted down to the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, where the first interest-rate cut of 2025 is widely expected.Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 hovered near the flatline, following a largely unchanged session on Tuesday. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 also showed little movement, reflecting cautious market sentiment ahead of the Fed’s announcement.Lower interest rates could boost a broader range of US stocks by reducing borrowing costs, supporting companies reliant on debt and stimulating sectors tied to economic cycles.JPMorgan strategists noted that in past cycles, cyclical sectors initially lagged defensive stocks after a pause in rate cuts but often outperformed after six months.Nelson Yu, head of equities at AllianceBernstein, highlighted industrial and financial shares that have underperformed in recent rallies as “high-quality cyclical stocks that could do well given some relief on rates,” Reuters reported.“Rate cuts to me really open up the opportunities for more segments of the market to participate in terms of leadership,” Matt Stucky, chief portfolio manager for equities at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, told Reuters. He added that a lower policy rate could help broaden the overall economy and, in turn, the market.“Stocks are hinging on a few things. One is … that the Fed confirms that what the market thinks is going to happen, is likely to happen,” said Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

Investors say easier policy could extend Wall Street’s rally, though much of the optimism may already be priced in. Markets have nearly six quarter-point cuts factored in by end-2026, Reuters reported.

Historically, the start of an easing cycle has supported stock gains over the following year. Lower rates could particularly benefit cyclical sectors such as banks, homebuilders, materials and smaller firms, creating new market leadership beyond megacap technology stocks.

Drew Pettit, Director of US Equity Strategy at Citi, said a 25 basis point cut from the Federal Reserve is already fully priced in, meaning markets may see a short-term pause.“Technically, it could be a sell-the-news type of event because it’s fully priced into markets. But if earnings estimates are unchanged, and we get good reports for Q3 and good 2026 outlooks, it’s a buying opportunity,” Pettit told CNBC-TV18.He argued that a brief pullback would be a healthy sign of a bull market rather than the start of a downturn.  here

A long-dormant Bitcoin whale transferred 1,000 BTC — worth about $116 million — to new wallets on Wednesday, just hours before the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision, according to TradingView data cited by Lookonchain.

The stash was originally acquired around 12 years ago at roughly $847 per coin, amounting to $847,000 at the time. The transfer comes as markets await the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting, expected to deliver the first US rate cut of the year.

While a rate cut is widely expected, the path of interest rates beyond September remains uncertain. Attention will turn to the Fed’s “dot plot,” which outlines policymakers’ projections for rate moves through 2025.

Markets will also closely track Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at his press conference, scheduled to begin at 2:30 p.m. ET, for further clues on the policy outlook.

US stock futures were little changed on Wednesday as markets awaited the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, widely expected to deliver the first interest rate cut of 2025.

Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 futures hovered near the flatline, while contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 also traded steady. Major Wall Street benchmarks had closed Tuesday marginally weaker.

Markets are pricing a 96% probability of a 25 basis points cut and a 4% chance of a larger reduction. Analysts say a softening labour market could outweigh inflation concerns in the Fed’s decision.

Gold prices slipped on Wednesday, retreating from a record peak as investors booked profits and a stronger dollar weighed on sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement later in the day.Spot gold was down 0.7 percent at $3,663.93 per ounce as of 0905 GMT, after touching a record high of $3,702.95 on Tuesday. US gold futures for December delivery also fell 0.7 percent to $3,700.10.NewsLive TVMarketPopular CategoriesCalculatorsTrending NowLet's Connect with CNBCTV 18Network 18 Group :©TV18 Broadcast Limited. All rights reserved.