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The majority of the Federal Reserve now targeting two further rate cuts this year indicates that the doves on the committee are now in the driver’s seat, said Simon Dangoor, head of fixed income macro strategies at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

It is really important that there was just one dissent in the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut decision, said David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. While Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman may each want the job of Federal Reserve chair, they weren’t willing to go against the consensus, he said in an interview with CNBC.

The Federal Reserve expects to cut short-term interest rates by another 0.5% this year, following a 0.25% reduction on Wednesday, according to its latest projections. However, internal disagreement is growing. The Fed’s “dot plot” shows varied views, with one policymaker favoring a year-end rate of 4.4%, while another—likely new Governor Stephen Miran—prefers 2.9%. Miran, recently appointed by President Donald Trump, dissented from the latest decision, advocating for a deeper cut. His appointment followed the resignation of Adriana Kugler and the contested firing of Lisa Cook, both Fed Governors. These moves have raised concerns that political pressure could push the Fed toward excessive rate cuts, risking inflation. Of the 19 policymakers, six oppose further cuts, two support one more, and nine favor two additional quarter-point reductions. The shift in sentiment stems from weaker job growth, rising unemployment, and limited inflation from Trump’s tariffs, prompting most officials to support easing despite lingering inflation fears.

After announcing their latest rate decision, officials shared their updated “dot plot”—a chart showing each member’s prediction for future rate changes. Most expect two more rate cuts before the year ends. But opinions vary widely.

One dot—possibly from Miran, who strongly supports lower rates—suggests a big drop of 1.25 percentage points. The chart doesn’t name anyone, but each dot represents one person’s view.

Out of 19 members:

– 10 expect two more cuts, likely in October and December

– 9 expect just one more cut

– 1 doesn’t want any cuts at all, not even the one just made

Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, who were expected to possibly oppose, both supported the 25 basis point cut. Both were appointed by former President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly urged the Fed to not only make the usual quarter-point rate cuts but to reduce the federal funds rate swiftly and boldly.

Trump’s newly installed Governor Stephen Miran was the only one of those voting against the quarter-point move, instead advocating for a half-point cut.

BIG BREAKING | On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve approved a widely expected rate cut and indicated that two additional cuts may come before year-end amid growing concerns about the U.S. labor market. In an 11-to-1 vote, with less dissent than Wall Street anticipated, the Federal Open Market Committee lowered its benchmark overnight lending rate by a quarter percentage point, setting the target range between 4% and 4.25%.

The 10-year Treasury yield traded at 4.045%, up nearly 2 basis points. The rate on the 2-year Treasury was last up 3 basis points at 3.541%.

Crypto bull Eric Trump says a Federal Reserve rate cut — which his father, President Trump, has been clamoring for — could give crypto prices a big boost. “I just think you would potentially see this thing skyrocket,” Trump told Yahoo Finance, adding that because of crypto’s seasonality, there is particular room for growth in the fourth quarter. His crypto miner, American Bitcoin (ABTC), also backed by brother Donald Trump Jr., debuted on the Nasdaq in early September after a merger with Gryphon Digital Mining. Trump added that lower borrowing costs would free up cash for riskier bets. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is widely expected to lower rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, though the path for additional cuts remains unclear.

British stocks rose on Wednesday, recovering from the previous session’s losses, as investors waited for the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision later in the day. The benchmark FTSE 100 gained 0.14%, while the domestically focused FTSE 250 advanced 0.6%.

US stocks diverged on Wednesday in the countdown to the end of Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, overwhelmingly expected to usher in the first US interest rate cut of 2025. The Dow Jones Industrial Average moved up nearly 0.7%, while the S&P 500 nudged down 0.1%, Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell over 0.5%.

The US Federal Reserve’s “dot plot” is one of the most closely watched charts in global markets, providing a snapshot of policymakers’ expectations for future interest rates. The chart is published quarterly as part of the central bank’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent previously agreed to occupy two different houses at the same time as his “principal residence,” Bloomberg News reported, an agreement similar to one President Donald Trump has called mortgage fraud in his unprecedented bid to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. Source: Reuters

Tensions between US President Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve have dominated headlines in recent months and before the central bank’s key policy decision tonight. On August 1, Trump blasted Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Truth Social, calling him “stubborn” for keeping rates steady despite easing inflation. He went further, urging the Fed’s board of governors to seize control of interest rate decisions if Powell doesn’t “substantially” cut borrowing costs. The Fed has so far held rates at 4.33% this year, citing tariff-driven inflation risks. With inflation at 2.6%, markets await Powell’s remarks for clues on the easing path ahead.

Matthew Luzzetti, chief US economist for Deutsche Bank, said a path for more rate cuts would likely be driven by “risk management considerations,” with greater downside risks to the labor market and more limited upside risks to inflation. Luzzetti expects three cuts in total this year, with little change to Fed officials’ economic outlook for slow growth, higher inflation, and modestly higher unemployment.

The last dot plot, released in June, revealed a consensus among Fed officials for two cuts this year amid uncertainties about how the Trump administration’s policies on tariffs, immigration, and taxes would impact the economy.

The US Federal Reserve is expected to announce its first interest rate decision of 2025 later tonight, Wednesday, September 17, following the two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

Stocks could take a hit if the US Federal Reserve turns out to be less friendly to rate cuts than investors expect, according to Subadra Rajappa, head of US rates at Societe Generale. Speaking on CNBC’s Fast Money on Tuesday, she said markets may “unwind” if traders realise the Fed won’t cut rates as aggressively as they’re hoping. The Fed is set to give more clarity on its plans this week when it publishes its “dot plot” — a chart showing where policymakers see interest rates heading in the future.

At its July meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signalled that future policy decisions would depend heavily on the state of the labour market. Since then, data has shown clear signs of weakening. Hiring has slowed, unemployment claims have risen, and the overall jobless rate has edged higher.

These developments have reinforced expectations that the Fed will cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point. Investors believe easing policy could help cushion the economy against labour market stress and sustain growth momentum.

US stocks were mixed on Wednesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s closely watched policy decision and, more importantly, its outlook for the path of interest rates.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average bucked the trend, adding 254 points, or 0.5%, to close higher.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged nearly 300 points in early trading Wednesday as investors positioned ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq slipped, led by a 2.5% drop in Nvidia shares after reports that China had banned its RTX Pro 6000D AI chips. CEO Jensen Huang expressed disappointment over the move, noting broader US-China tensions are affecting Nvidia’s operations in the country. here

In another setback for the housing market, both building permits and new construction fell short of forecasts in August.

The numbers suggest continued softness in the sector, adding to concerns about the broader economic outlook.

Shortly after the 9:30 a.m. ET open on Wednesday, US markets were mostly flat. The S&P 500 edged up 0.1%, the Nasdaq slipped less than 0.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 164 points, or 0.4%, as investors awaited the Fed’s policy announcement.

According to CME FedWatch, 96.2% of market participants expect a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut on September 17. Many see this as paving the way for another RBI repo rate cut when its monetary policy panel meets on Mumbai’s Mint Street three weeks later.India’s rates are already at a three-year low after a 50-basis-point cut in June. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the panel front-loaded cuts to boost growth. More deets here

Investors are holding back as markets await the Fed’s pivot to easing, signaled last month by Chair Powell. A cooling labor market is expected to prompt the central bank to trim rates, even as inflation ticks higher.

Traders see a 96% chance of a 25-basis-point cut and a small 4% chance of a larger move when the decision drops at 2:00 p.m. ET. US stock futures remained flat Wednesday as the countdown to the Fed’s policy announcement continues.

The Federal Reserve cut rates three times last year on concerns about weakening job gains and rising unemployment — the same backdrop it faces now.

Markets expect borrowing costs to ease further after this week’s decision. Mortgage rates have already declined in anticipation, and additional cuts in October and December could lower rates on home loans, car loans, and credit cards.

The Senate on September 15, confirmed President Donald Trump’s nominee Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve’s board of governors, just a day before the two-day policy meeting.Miran, who chairs the White House Council of Economic Advisers, fills the seat vacated by former Fed Governor Adriana Kugler in August. He and Governor Lisa Cook will both vote at this month’s meeting.His appointment has fuelled concerns over the Fed’s independence, given Trump’s repeated calls for steeper rate cuts and his push to tilt the board’s composition.

US stock futures were little changed on Wednesday as traders awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and guidance on the path ahead.

S&P 500 futures slipped 0.1%, Nasdaq-100 futures hovered near the flatline, and Dow futures fell 28 points, or less than 0.1%.

In premarket trade, Nvidia shares dropped 1.3% after the Financial Times reported that China has barred domestic tech firms from purchasing the company’s chips.

Gold prices retreated from peak levels in Delhi on Wednesday as investors booked profits ahead of the US Fed’s policy outcome. According to the All India Sarafa Association, gold of 99.5% purity fell ₹1,300 to ₹1,13,300 per 10 grams, while 99.9% purity traded at ₹1,13,800.

The yellow metal had surged to lifetime highs on Tuesday — ₹1,15,100 (99.9% purity) and ₹1,14,600 (99.5% purity). Traders said the pullback reflects caution as markets await clarity on whether the Fed’s rate cut marks the start of a deeper easing cycle.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell faces a brutal balancing act as he steps into today’s press conference. He must acknowledge the political noise without appearing swayed by it, while giving investors clarity on whether the rate cut is merely a one-off insurance move—or the beginning of a deeper easing cycle.

As Bank of America’s senior US economist Aditya Bhave told Bloomberg: “Every cut is more difficult than the previous cut unless the labour market shows signs of continued deterioration.”

For Powell, the risks are stark. Cut too little, and the jobs slump could deepen. Cut too much, and inflation might roar back.

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