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US Fed Meeting 2026 LIVE: The US Federal Reserve announced its second monetary policy decision for 2026 after a two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, keeping its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75% for the second consecutive time on Wednesday, March 18.

US Fed Chair Jerome Powell addressed the media after the meeting to announce the policy decision. The FOMC decision is in line with expectations of experts, who anticipated the US Fed would likely to keep the interest rate unchanged, as markets remain sensitive to oil prices amid the US-Iran war.

The FOMC assessed key economic indicators, including inflation trends and labour market conditions, before announcing its interest rate decision. Notably, this was the first meeting of the US central bank since the US-Iran war.

The US Fed's benchmark interest rate currently stands in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%. At its January meeting, the Fed opted to hold rates unchanged. Before that, it announced three consecutive rate cuts of 0.25% each in an effort to prevent the cooling job market from deteriorating into higher unemployment.

FOMC announcement — Key Highlights

Jerome Powell on future with Federal Reserve

Powell said he will serve as Chair pro-tem if his successor Kevin Warsh is not confirmed by May, “as is precedent”. He added that he will also continue to remain on the Fed's board of governors till his investigation is completed. The US Justice Department is probing renovation costs at the central bank.

On whether he would take on another term as the central bank's Governor for another term, Powell said he is not decided.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said a rate hike is not the expected path of monetary policy but there were discussions that “our next move might be an increase”. He added that “the vast majority of participants don't see that as their base case,” but “we don't take things off the table.”

‘Inflation and employment are our two mandates. We are subject to Senate oversight. Central bank independence is important to work towards our mandates.’

‘SEP is never locked, (governors) not bound by them. People happy to be proven wrong. For this one, subject to very high levels of uncertainty, take the SEP with a grain of salt.’

The statement came amid queries on whether projections could hinder the possible new Governor's policy direction.

‘Wait and see. We always learn by next meeting and we’re going to see how the outlook evolves with the middle east, but its very uncertain. The US economy has been strong through significant challenges, but I don't want to assume or speculate.'

‘There is tension between upward risk for inflation and downward risk for employment. Stagflation was a 1970s terms where misery index was very high. Unemployment is near normal, inflation is percent higher. Its not stagflation — very difficult, but not stagflation.’

‘Have to wait and see what happens. It depends on how long the current situation extends. Not much we can speculate.’

"In the near term, higher energy prices will push up overall inflation, but it is too soon to know the scope and duration of the potential effects on the economy." He added that monetary policy is "well positioned to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments to our policy rate based on the incoming data, evolving outlook, and the balance of risks."

Jerome Powell says he will serve as Chair pro-tem if his successor is not confirmed by May.

He will also continue to stay on the Fed board till his investigation is completed.

On whether he would take on another term as Governor, Powell said he is not decided.

‘Unemployment rate being stable, with supply and demand for workers down… the ratio has been stable since September. Inflation is well above the 2% target, that’s a concern and we need to keep focused on that. One not at obviously more risk than the other.'

‘A big part of the disinflation we’re looking for is the run-offs from the tariffs on a one-time basis. We're waiting for that process to go through the system to that goods inflation returns to pre-tariffs levels (negative to 0%). It's important to keep policy mildly restrictive to balance risks in a difficult situation.'

‘US Fed expects higher energy prices to drive near-term inflation. High prices may weigh on consumption. No conviction on whether this would pass through quickly or not. Unclear what direction from this end will be. So far inflation has been through goods and tariffs, but the US economy is doing pretty well.’

'The forecast is that we will be making progress on inflation this year. The rate forecast is conditional on the economy. So if we don't see progress, you won't see rate cut.'

‘Well aware of inflation performance over the past few years. Important to see progress on inflation through reduction in goods inflation this year as one-time effects of tariffs goes through the economy. Total core inflation is 3% — some half of this is tariffs. Energy inflation and shocks are dependent on inflation expectations remaining anchored.’

The Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged was widely expected by investors amid uncertain outlook driven by ongoing tensions in the Middle East, which have pushed energy prices to multi-year highs, prompting the US Federal Reserve to raise its preferred inflation gauge to 2.7% by the end of 2026—up from its December forecast of 2.5%, but slightly below the 2.8% recorded in January.

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in a press conference today said that the central bank is focused on achieving 2% inflation goal.

The FOMC policy was voted by Chair Jerome Powell; Vice Chair John C. Williams; and Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Beth M. Hammack; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; Anna Paulson; and Christopher J. Waller.

Voting against this action was by Stephen Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.

The FOMC statement said it is “prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals”.

For this, it added that the Committee's will take into account readings on labour market conditions, inflation pressures and expectations, and financial and international developments.

FOMC statement said rates are unchanged and the Committee “will carefully assess incoming data, evolving outlook, and balance of risks”.

It added: “The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.”

“The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate,” the statement read.

In its Summary of Economic Projections, the Fed lifted its expectations for headline PCE inflation to 2.7% from 2.4%.

Its expectation for core inflation, which excludes volatile segments, rose from 2.5% to 2.7%.

Fed Governor Waller providers sole dissent.

Fed says inflation remains somewhat elevated. Job gains remain low and unemployment little changed, it said.

Fed boosts median 2026 GDP projection to 2.4% from 2.3%

US Fed keeps rates unchanged in 3.5-3.75% range in 11-1 vote

Harshal Dasani, Business Head, INVasset PMS feels that the latest US inflation, growth and labour market data do not yet make a strong case for the Fede to turn sharply hawkish.

“Inflation has cooled from its peak, while the labour market, though still relatively resilient, is no longer running as hot as it was a year ago. That means the Fed’s base case is still likely to be a pause with a cautious undertone rather than an outright hawkish reset. The bigger issue for markets will be the commentary around inflation persistence, energy risks and the timing of future easing, not just the rate decision itself,” he noted.

The FOMC could mention the US-Iran war in its post-meeting statement amid concerns over its impact on the US economy, as per a Bloomberg report. Besides this, economist will also watch for updates on the labour market, inflation and the oil price hike, it added.

Minutes from the Fed’s January gathering showed several officials would have supported language acknowledging “two-sided” risks to the future path of interest rates, suggesting an openness to raising rates if inflation stays stubbornly high.

Bloomberg said nearly half of economists surveyed expect the Fed to incorporate the “two-sided” risk, but the weak jobs data and uncertainty related to the Iran conflict may reduce support for rate hikes.

The Fed's fresh economic projections could reveal how the central bank is interpreting recent economic data and geopolitical events, Bloomberg reported. It noted that economists expect policymakers to pencil in two quarter-point rate cuts for this year, up from the one cut policymakers projected in December.

Data released since the Fed’s January gathering showed inflation remained elevated even before the US-Iran war caused oil prices to rocket. Economists are watching for official forecast for inflation, GDP and unemployment for clues on how the Fed expects the oil-price shock to affect the economy over the longer run.

Pranay Aggarwal, Director and CEO of Stoxkart feels that amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility, the US Fed “is expected to hold rates steady in its March 18 policy, maintaining a cautious, data-dependent stance”.

“With no near-term rate cuts anticipated, markets will closely monitor commentary on inflation trends, labor market strength, and financial conditions,” he added.

Bloomberg cited economist say that US Fed policymakers are likely to have “robust discussion” over impact of the US-Iran war and slow growth could worsen inflation. The Fed has so far battled and failed to reach its target for five years running, it added.

“Whenever you have the Fed’s dual mandate become a dueling mandate, there should be debate. And the reality is that we don’t have the luxury of other central banks of just looking through the inflation, given that we’re five years in and the risks of it becoming more entrenched rise by the day,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG told the publication.

Taking into account oil prices, inflation numbers and uncertainty over the US-Iran war, Wall Street agrees that the US Fed is likely to keep interest rates steady today, AP reported.

While cuts would give the job market and investment prices a boost, and President Donald Trump has insistent on the same, lower interest rates are likely to worsen inflation, while the Fed is targeting 2%.

Wall Street is watching keenly for indication of at least one rate cut this year, which the median member in December (last FOMC data) showed.

All eyes are focused on the US Fed's decision today. The central bank is largely expected to hold keep rates unchanged, but investors are watching for comments on oil price and whether that alters the regulator's path going ahead, Reuters reported.

Global stocks fell today, erasing earlier gains as oil prices rose again as the US recorded higher than expected inflation ahead of the Fed's monetary policy announcement, Reuters reported.

The price hike came after Iran's Pars gas field — the world's largest natural gas field — was hit on 18 March.

Market participants expect the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at the upcoming March 2026 FOMC meeting, as financial markets remain highly sensitive to elevated oil prices amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict.

Shashank Udupa, SEBI-registered RA and Fund Manager at Smallcase, believes that with Jerome Powell’s tenure nearing its end, markets are likely to focus more on the broader Fed consensus than on his individual tone.

The US Fed is gearing up for a leadership transition, as the term of its current chair, Jerome Powell, ends in May. He is set to be succeeded by Kevin Warsh, who has been nominated by Donald Trump.

Trump has been advocating for larger rate cuts by the Fed, arguing that such measures are necessary to support economic growth.

However, Warsh is yet to be confirmed by the US Senate and the economic factors may still lend to the central bank keeping rates unchanged.

Investors are assessing that higher crude oil, gas, and fertiliser prices, triggered by the ongoing war in the Middle East, could prompt the US Federal Reserve to hold interest rates until late 2026.

Before pausing rate cuts in January, policymakers had reduced short-term interest rates three consecutive times, indicating that the impact of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on the economy was limited.

However, the ongoing US-Iran war has led to a sharp rise in energy prices, making policymakers’ jobs more difficult, given an already soft labour market.

Nachiketa Sawrikar, Fund Manager at Artha Bharat Global Multiplier Fund, expects the FOMC to maintain the status quo while emphasizing caution regarding inflation risks. In the near term, financial markets are likely to remain sensitive to oil prices, which are currently hovering near $100 per barrel.

For emerging markets such as India, Nachiketa Sawrikar noted that higher oil prices are already exerting pressure on the rupee and equity markets, while gold prices continue to rise amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

The US Fed’s benchmark interest rate is currently in the 3.5%–3.75% range as it kept rates unchanged at the January meeting.

Prior to that, the US central bank had delivered three consecutive rate cuts of 0.25% each to prevent a softening labour market from slipping into higher unemployment.

The US Fed does not directly set Social Security payments. However, its monetary policy plays a major role in shaping inflation trends and inflation remains the key factor driving annual Social Security adjustments.

Higher interest rates typically curb spending and ease inflation, while lower rates can boost economic activity and potentially push prices higher.

Millions of Americans relying on Social Security are closely watching the Fed’s decision today as it could shape expectations for the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA).

While Social Security increases are determined by inflation data later in the year, the Fed’s stance on interest rates offers an early indication of where prices may be headed and whether benefit increases are likely to be modest or significant.

In the January meeting, most US Fed policymakers cautioned that progress toward the 2% inflation objective could be slower and more uneven than previously expected. They emphasised that inflation running persistently above target remains a key concern.

With crude oil prices running high, many economists expect the Fed will have to raise its inflation forecast to as high as 3% even by late 2026. An increase of that magnitude could be hard to reconcile with further interest rate cuts.

Investors are assessing that higher crude oil, gas, and fertiliser prices, triggered by the ongoing war in the Middle East, could prompt the central bank to hold interest rates until late 2026.

Before pausing rate cuts in January, policymakers had reduced short-term interest rates three consecutive times, indicating that the impact of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on the economy was limited.

US Fed policymakers are broadly expected to maintain current interest rates at the end of their two-day deliberations today.

Now, they are shifting their attention toward escalating energy expenses. Eyes will be on the surge in petroleum prices, which threatens to intensify inflationary trends and potentially dampen overall economic growth.

“The market is seemingly braced for a more cautious-minded Fed when it comes to cutting rates in light of the surge in energy prices and the ongoing war with Iran. The February Producer Price Index is only going to add to that perspective,” said Briefing.com analyst Patrick O'Hare, according to AFP.

Wall Street’s main stock indices edged lower today after data showed February producer price inflation increased more than expected, and ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision.

At the open, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 79.3 points, or 0.17%, to 46,913.93. The S&P 500 fell 18.9 points, or 0.28%, to 6,697.16​, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 57.6 points, or 0.26%, to 22,421.962.

Investors and analysts for now have scaled back their expectations for steady rate cuts from the US Fed this year, Reuters reported.

This is even with US President Trump continuing to call for lower borrowing costs and Kevin Warsh, the president's nominee to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chief, expected to be in place by the June 16-17 meeting.

Futures markets now see the Fed delivering only one quarter-percentage-point rate cut this year, in September, and another cut in late 2027, a pace and level out of step with what Trump has advocated, it added.

Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, said in an analysis last week that the moment seems primed for the Fed's updated projections to move in a stagflationary direction.

She expects higher inflation and unemployment to be penciled in for the end of this year, and the interest rate outlook to be further splintered between central bank officials who advocate rate cuts to keep the job market on track, and those in favor of keeping tight policy in place — or even hinting at rate hikes with a higher year-end rate outlook.

“The forecasts are being made amidst a cloud of uncertainty. I would expect participants at the meeting to mark down their assessments of growth, while they mark up their estimates of inflation and unemployment,” Swonk said.

Fed officials are expected to hold interest rates steady today, with the wartime meeting set to outline a new policy statement and projections for how the conflict has restructured the outlook for the US economy, inflation and monetary policy, Reuters reported.

Experts said the outlook has turned from confidence in steady economic growth and slowing inflation into a tug of war between potentially rising price pressures and new risks to growth and the job market.Jocelyn Fernandes is a journalist and editor with nearly 13 years of experience covering the business, corporate, economy and markets beats in news.