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US-Iran war buzz: Following a 12-day air war in June 2025, Israel attacked Iran on Saturday, and a United States (US) attack is underway, plunging the Middle East into a renewed military confrontation and further dimming hopes for a diplomatic solution to Tehran's nuclear dispute with the West.

This fallout in the Middle East is expected to escalate geopolitical tensions and uncertainty among investors, and various assets, especially equities, gold, and silver, are expected to react when trading resumes on Monday.

According to stock market experts, the escalation in the US-Iran war would have a negative impact on the global markets, including India's Dalal Street. Expecting a big gap-down opening on Monday, they said the Nifty 50 index may try to test its crucial support at 24,500 to 24,400 if the 50-stock index breaches its immediate support at 24,850 to 24,800. Market experts said the US-Iran war is expected to fuel safe-haven demand for gold and silver amid geopolitical uncertainty.

On how the Indian stock market may open on Monday after the escalation in the US-Iran war buzz, Avinash Gorakshkar, a SEBI-registered fundamental equity analyst, said, “The Indian stock market may have a big gap down opening on Monday after the outbreak of the US-Iran war.”

Avinash Gorakshkar said that after the joint US-Israel attack on Iran, the geopolitical uncertainty has grown, and the supply chain is also expected to come under threat in the Middle East, especially the Strait of Hormuz, which transits about 20% of the global oil supply. So, the Nifty 50 index may find it tough to sustain above the immediate support placed at the 24,850 to 24,800 levels. If the 50-stock index decisively breaks below 24,800, the key benchmark index may test crucial support around the 24,500 to 24,400 levels.

Advising investors to remain vigilant about the developments around the Strait of Hormuz, Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS WealthStreet, said that escalating tensions in the Middle East pose material risks to global energy stability.

“Any disruption or blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of global oil supply transits, could trigger a sharp spike in crude prices, push freight and logistics costs higher, and re-ignite inflationary pressures worldwide. Such a scenario would complicate central bank policy, forcing a delicate balance between inflation control and growth support,” Sugandha added.

Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking, believes the Indian stock market is weak as the Nifty 50 index has closed below the 200-day EMA. The Choice Broking expert said the Nifty 50 index has formed its fourth consecutive red candle and closed below the 200-day EMA, indicating a weakening medium-term trend and a shift in the overall market structure toward bearishness.

Speaking on the outlook of the Nifty 50 index, Sumeet Bagadia said, “From a technical perspective, immediate resistance for the Nifty 50 index is seen in the 25,300–25,350 zone, while a strong support base is positioned around 25,000–25,050."

Asked about the kind of opening gold and silver prices may have on Monday after the escalation in US-Iran tension, Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered market expert, said, “The escalation in the US-Iran war buzz is expected to fuel uncertainty, and investors are expected to look at gold and silver as a safe-haven asset. We expect a gap-up opening for precious metals.”

Anuj Gupta said the COMEX gold rate today is facing a hurdle at $5,300/oz. Breaking above this resistance, gold rates in India may touch ₹1,68,000 to ₹1,70,000 per 10 gm.

The COMEX silver rate finished above $93/oz on Friday, and the precious metal is facing a hurdle at the $95/oz level, said Anuj Gupta. He said COMEX gold prices may regain the $100/oz mark if it breaks and sustains above the $95/oz resistance.

“If the COMEX silver rate breaks and sustains above $95/oz, we can expect the spot silver price to regain $100 per ounce mark, and the silver rate in India may touch ₹3,00,000 per kg,” Anuj Gupta concluded.

Expecting escalation in the WTI Crude Oil prices on Monday, Amit Goel, Chief Global Strategist at PACE 360, said that WTI Crude and Brent Crude may open upside on Monday. However, Israel and the US attacks on Iran will be limited to diffusing Tehran's military establishment. They may not touch their oil fields, as it would disrupt oil supply for a longer period, which could lead to a sudden upside in global and US inflation.

The Chief Global Strategist of PACE 360 believes the US Congressional elections are just 9 months away, and that US President Donald Trump may not take this risk because it could jeopardise his party's chances of winning. So, there would be a limited rise in crude oil prices due to heightened US-Iran tensions, and the US administration may try to address the demand-supply imbalance caused by the oil supply disruption in Iran by asking Saudi Arabia and Iran to increase their oil output.

“So, we are expecting that crude oil price may not go beyond $75 per barrel and Brent Crude oil price may not go beyond $80 per barrel,” Amit Goel of PACE 360 concluded.

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.Asit Manohar has nearly two decades of experience in the mainstream media. In this period, he has served esteemed organisations like NDTV Profit, The ...

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