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The Indian stock market is likely to stage a sharp reversal in Tuesday's trading session, after the heavy selloff seen today, as signalled by the Gift Nifty futures following US President Donald Trump's comments that signalled a breakthrough in the Middle East conflict.

Trump, in a post on the social media platform Truth Social, suggested that the US and Iran have had constructive conversations over the last two days regarding the “complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East”.

He further said that he has asked the Department of Defence to postpone "any and all" military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days.

The development follows the president’s 48-hour ultimatum over the weekend, demanding that the Strait of Hormuz be fully reopened. In response, Tehran warned it could completely shut down and mine the critical waterway, triggering a sharp global market sell-off on Monday amid fears of escalating disruption.

"Trump has instructed a five-day pause...that basically triggered what I would call some sort of “TACO” movement in markets where we have seen all prices move lower and rates rallying," said Evelyne Gomez-Liechti, multi-asset strategist for global markets at Mizuho told Reuters.

Trump's latest comments have resulted in a sharp decline in the US dollar and a spike in the Gift Nifty futures and a recovery in the gold and silver prices along with global equities. US stock futures were 1.9% higher, pointing to a strong open on Wall Street, while European stocks were last up 0.6%, having risen by as much as 2%.

Meanwhile, Gift Nifty futures surged to 23,533.50 as against the last close of 22,465, recording a 1,068.5-point or 4.75% upside. As of 5.20 pm IST, the Gift Nifty futures were 853.50 or 3.80% higher at 23,318.50, signalling that the Indian stock market is poised to kick off Tuesday's trading session on a firm note.

"Post-market close on Monday, US President Donald Trump declared 'complete and total resolution' of the Middle East hostility, triggering strong buying in overseas markets that are now open. The Indian Gift Nifty has surged by over 4%, signalling a big gap-up opening on Tuesday. The Nifty 50 index may regain the 23,000 levels after this positive development in the Middle East. However, it is possible if things remain the same over the next 24 hours," said Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager — Research at Anand Rathi.

Trump’s comments came as the Middle East conflict entered its fourth week, triggering a sharp sell-off across global equities and precious metals.

Indian markets have faced intense selling pressure in March following the onset of the US–Israeli conflict with Iran. The surge in crude oil prices has heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, pushed the rupee to record lows, and led to significant outflows from foreign portfolio investors.

On Monday, the Nifty 50 index had slipped 2.60% to 22,513. This led to a month-to-date decline of 10.6% — its worst monthly fall in six years.

Commenting on the index outlook, Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said that Nifty is showing little respect for support levels despite being in an oversold zone. He sees the next major support for the index in the 21,900–22,000 zone, which coincides with the 200 WEMA, followed by 21,700 (the April 2025 low).

"In case of a recovery, the 22,800–23,000 zone is likely to act as a strong resistance band. Given the prevailing uncertainty, elevated volatility and continued global headwinds, participants are advised to prefer options spreads over naked positions in the index, while maintaining a selective, stock-specific trading approach," Mishra opined.

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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.Saloni Goel has over nine years of experience as a business journalist, with a strong track record of covering the financial markets. Over the course of her career, she has reported extensively on global and domestic equities, IPO market activity, commodities, and broader macroeconomic trends. Her reporting reflects a keen eye for detail, data-driven analysis, and the ability to spot emerging themes early.

At Mint, Saloni has been part of the markets team for nearly two years, where she currently works as Chief Content Producer. In this role, she plays a key part in shaping market coverage, driving editorial strategy, and ensuring timely, accurate, and insightful reporting across. She has been closely involved in breaking news coverage and in crafting stories that help decode the complex financial developments.

Before joining Mint, Saloni worked with some of India’s leading business newsrooms, including The Economic Times and Business Standard. Throughout her career, she has worn multiple hats—ranging from reporting and editing to contributing in-depth features and identifying new storytelling formats and market trends.

Her experience in fast-paced digital newsrooms has given her an edge in simplifying complex market concepts without losing analytical depth. Outside of work, Saloni enjoys reading books and spending time with her pet.

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