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German industrial production unexpectedly rose in May, suggesting companies rushed production before potentially much higher tariffs on exports to the US.

Output increased 1.2% from April, the statistics office said Monday. Economists had predicted a 0.2% dip, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. Car, pharmaceuticals and energy production all rose.

While businesses rallying to fill export orders to get ahead of new trade rules handed Germany a bumper start to 2025, the outlook for the rest of the year is less upbeat. Europe’s largest economy is expected to tread water in the best case scenario following two consecutive annual contractions. If trade tensions escalate, the Bundesbank projects it could shrink in 2025 and 2026 as well.

Shell Plc said its second-quarter results will be undermined by weaker contributions from the energy giant’s fabled oil and gas trading operation.

The contributions from trading and optimization are expected to be “significantly lower” for the second quarter compared with the first for segments that span oil and gas trading, London-based Shell said in a statement on Monday.

Shell’s sprawling but secretive in-house trading business is often one of its biggest profit drivers, and Chief Executive Officer Wael Sawan said in March that its traders haven’t lost money in a single quarter over the past decade.

European natural gas prices steadied as traders eyed US President Donald Trump’s fast-approaching tariff deadline and the impact levies will have on global economic activity.

Benchmark futures hovered near €33 a megawatt-hour Monday, after posting a small weekly gain through Friday. The US is preparing to start delivering letters to dozens of countries in the coming days, with the Trump administration’s 90-day pause on higher duties set to expire on Wednesday.

The initial rollout of Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs in early April sparked fears of a US recession and sent energy prices tumbling on expectations that a weaker economy will curb demand. For Europe, which competes with other nations for liquefied natural gas cargoes, a further drop in prices could help ease its efforts to replenish fuel stockpiles ahead of next winter.

UK house prices failed to grow for a second straight month, as the housing market struggles to gain traction after a tax break expired and a sharp increase in sellers coming to market, according to one of the country’s biggest lenders.

Halifax said that average prices were unchanged in June at £296,665 ($404,220) after declining 0.3% the previous month.

Prices have grown in only two months so far this year. Values rose 2.5% from a year earlier, the slowest annual growth since July last year.

Israel’s central bank is set to hold interest rates for a 12th consecutive time, with policymakers waiting to see if the shekel’s recent rally helps tame inflation and paves the way for a cut.

A ceasefire with Iran announced by President Donald Trump last month — halting Israeli and US strikes on the Islamic Republic’s military and nuclear programs — drove a rally in the shekel. Last week, the currency was at its strongest against the dollar in three years, erasing drops following Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s judicial overhaul attempts and Hamas’ October 7 attacks which triggered a 21-month war.

The Bank of Israel is expected to keep its base rate at 4.5% on Monday, according to all but one of 11 economists in a Bloomberg survey. A single projection points to a cut of 25 basis points.

Indonesia, the world’s second-biggest wheat buyer, plans to purchase more wheat from the US as it seeks to secure a trade deal ahead of the looming tariff deadline.

The Southeast Asian nation will sign a memorandum of understanding for wheat purchases during 2025-2030 with the US in Jakarta on Monday, Franciscus Welirang, the chairman of the Indonesian Flour Mills Association — known as Aptindo — said in a phone interview.

Indonesia may buy at least 800,000 tons of wheat from the US this year, up from 740,000 tons in 2024, and a minimum of 1 million tons annually from 2026, he said. The US last sold more than 1 million tons of wheat to Indonesia in 2020, when it shipped about 1.2 million tons, USDA figures show.

China hit back at the European Union’s restrictions on its medical device makers while maintaining key exceptions, adding uncertainty to ties ahead of a high-stakes summit later this month.

Beijing will exclude EU-based companies from Chinese government procurement for certain medical devices, according to a Sunday statement by the Ministry of Finance.

Crucially, the move doesn’t apply to products made in China, according to a separate statement from the Ministry of Commerce. This offers some relief for major European companies such as Siemens Healthineers AG and Royal Philips NV, which have increasingly localized their production in the world’s second-largest economy.

Gold fell as traders sought to track shifts in US trade policy, with bullion edging lower as President Donald Trump signaled an additional 10% tariff would apply to countries aligned with the BRICS group of nations.

Bullion lost as much as 0.9% to near $3,306 an ounce following the president’s threat, which gave the US dollar a small lift. With the US negotiating deals ahead of an initial July 9 tariff deadline, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated a possible extension to negotiations, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said country-by-country tariffs would take effect Aug. 1.

Bullion remains more than a quarter higher this year, trading about $190 shy of a record set in April, with investors seeking safety in the metal amid heightened geopolitical and trade tensions. The rally has been supported by flows into bullion-backed exchange-traded funds, plus strong demand from central banks.

Oil extended declines after OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected production increase next month, raising concerns about oversupply just as US tariffs fan fears about the demand outlook.

Brent slid as much as 1.6% toward $67 a barrel after falling 0.7% on Friday, and West Texas Intermediate was near $66. The group led by Saudi Arabia decided on Saturday to increase supply by 548,000 barrels a day, putting OPEC+ on track to unwind its most recent output cuts a year earlier than planned.

Alliance officials cited summer demand as one reason for their optimism that the extra barrels could be absorbed by the market, with the move answering President Donald Trump’s calls for lower fuel costs.

The Thai baht’s four-month rally is likely to falter as political turmoil is expected to weigh on the economy, according to the currency’s top forecaster.

The local currency may trade at 32.30 per dollar at the end of the year and into the first quarter of 2026, said Christoper Wong, senior FX strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. That implies the baht would be just 0.7% stronger than its level on Monday, after surging more than 5% in the four months through June.

“In the coming months, slower tourism, subdued domestic demand, political developments and tariff uncertainty are some factors that may hinder the baht’s appreciation path,” Wong said in an interview on Friday. “Relative to other Asian peers, I’m of the view that the baht may continue to stay back-footed.”

President Donald Trump said he would put an additional 10% tariff on any country aligning themselves with “the Anti-American policies of BRICS,” injecting further uncertainty into global trade as the US continues to negotiate levies with many trading partners.

“Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff,” Trump said Sunday night in a Truth Social post. “There will be no exceptions to this policy.”

The comments come as the US prepares to send tariff letters to dozens of countries in the coming days, with the Trump administration’s 90-day pause on higher duties set to expire on Wednesday. Trump said in a separate post that the letters would start being delivered from noon Monday, Washington time.

President Donald Trump said he would put an additional 10% tariff on any country aligning themselves with “the Anti-American policies of BRICS,” injecting further uncertainty as the US continues to negotiate levies with trading partners.

“Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff,” Trump said Sunday night in a Truth Social post. “There will be no exceptions to this policy.”

BRICS is a grouping of nations that includes Brazil, China, Russia, South Africa and India. Over the weekend, the group’s leaders agreed to continue talks on a cross-border payment system for trade and investment — a project they’ve been discussing for a decade, though progress has been slow. Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are among those attending the BRICS summit.

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed on Monday after US President Donald Trump confirmed that “reciprocal” tariffs, first announced in April, will take effect on Aug. 1 for countries that haven’t struck a deal.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 slipped 0.53% while the Topix declined 0.57%. South Korea’s Kospi added 0.19% and the small-cap Kosdaq rose 0.16%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index lost 0.61%, and mainland China’s CSI 300 dipped 0.12%.

Futures on Wall Street are trading with losses at the culmination of the long Independence Day weekend ahead of US President Donald Trump’s looming reciprocal tariff deadline.

The Dow futures are currently trading 170 points lower, while futures of S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are down 30 points and 110 points respectively.

Good Morning!

US futures are falling ahead of President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements.

Multiple news bits have emerged over the weekend and this morning.

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