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Vedanta shares fall 7% despite Q3 profit jump, brokerages lift targets

Published on 30/01/2026 11:19 AM

Vedanta share price target 2026: Shares of Vedanta Ltd tumbled 6.93 per cent to Rs 713.25 on the NSE on Friday, a day after the company reported its Q3FY26 results. The stock opened at Rs 755, touched a low of Rs 702.40, and is trading below its 52-week high of Rs 769.80. Vedanta’s market capitalization stands at Rs 2.79 lakh crore.

The metals-to-oil conglomerate reported a 60 per cent jump in net profit to Rs 7,807 crore for Q3FY26, up from Rs 4,876 crore in the same period a year ago. Revenue rose 19 per cent to Rs 45,899 crore, compared with Rs 38,526 crore in Q3FY25. The growth was driven by higher London Metal Exchange (LME) prices, improved volumes, premium realisations, and forex gains.

Vedanta posted a record EBITDA of Rs 15,171 crore, up 34 per cent year-on-year, supported by margin expansion of 629 basis points to 41 per cent. Operating profit margin increased to 27 per cent from 22 per cent in Q3FY25. The company’s net debt declined to Rs 60,624 crore, reducing the net debt-to-EBITDA ratio to 1.23x from 1.40x a year ago, reflecting improved balance sheet health.

Aluminium: Revenue rose 10.2 per cent. The aluminium business remains the largest in India by production volume and accounts for nearly 40 per cent of Vedanta’s total revenue.

Zinc and Lead: Combined revenue increased 16 per cent.

Copper: Revenue surged 48.9 per cent, driven by higher LME prices and volumes.

Citi maintained a Buy rating on Vedanta, raising its target to Rs 900 from Rs 585. Citi highlighted 3Q EBITDA growth of 34 per cent year-on-year and 31 per cent quarter-on-quarter, attributing the rise to better commodity prices, higher volumes, forex gains, and lower costs. Citi expects aluminium LME upside, continued volume growth in aluminium and alumina, and the likely completion of the demerger process by 1QFY27. The brokerage also estimated a FY26 dividend of Rs 40 per share, with Rs 23 per share already paid.

JP Morgan retained a Neutral rating, raising its target to Rs 680 from Rs 580. The brokerage noted that 3QFY26 EBITDA was 2–5 per cent ahead of consensus and that the net debt-to-EBITDA ratio improved sequentially to 1.23x from 1.37x in 2Q. Capacity expansion projects are largely on track, including the Balco smelter (435kt) and Lanjigarh alumina refinery train-2 ramp-up. The Sijimali bauxite mine and Ghogarpalli coal mine are expected to be commissioned in 1HFY27 and 2HFY27, respectively. Vedanta is targeting April 1 as the effective date of the demerger, with listing of demerged entities around mid to end of May.

Vedanta Ltd has delivered robust returns for investors over the years. As per NSE data, the stock gained 3.78 per cent in the past week and 17.25 per cent over the last month. Year-to-date returns stand at 17.81 per cent, while the one-year return surged to 64.18 per cent. Over a three-year period, Vedanta shares have more than doubled, rising 120.57 per cent, and the five-year return has been particularly impressive at 340.31 per cent.