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West Asia tensions fuel aluminium surge; Hindalco, Vedanta in focusMarket participants believe that a near-term move in LME aluminium prices towards the $3,700-$3,800 per tonne range could trigger a rally in metal stocks, with prolonged smelter outages posing a key upside risk.By CNBC-TV18 April 15, 2026, 3:23:14 PM IST (Published)2 Min ReadGlobal brokerage firms are turning bullish on aluminium, citing a tightening supply outlook amid escalating geopolitical risks and resilient demand signals.

JPMorgan Chase said that LME aluminium spot prices have surged 6% over the past four days to hit a fresh high of $3,687 per tonne.

The rally is being driven by concerns that a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt alumina supplies and force further smelter shutdowns, while ongoing ceasefire talks are easing fears around demand destruction.

The brokerage now expects the global aluminium market to slip into its largest deficit in 26 years at 1.9 million tonnes in 2026, and sees Q2 CY26 prices averaging around $3,800 per tonne as supply disruptions begin to reflect more sharply in the physical market.

It adds that even a de-escalation in geopolitical tensions could turn out to be bullish for aluminium, as it would reduce macroeconomic risks while leaving supply-side damage largely intact.

Market participants believe that a near-term move in LME aluminium prices towards the $3,700-$3,800 per tonne range could trigger a rally in metal stocks, with prolonged smelter outages posing a key upside risk.

JPMorgan Chase maintains an 'Overweight' stance on Hindalco Industries and Vedanta Limited.

Meanwhile, HSBC also flags supply-side pressures, particularly from the Middle East conflict, as a key driver for aluminium prices.

The brokerage has raised its LME aluminium forecasts by 10% for CY2026 and 8% for CY2027, with price estimates revised to $3,524 and $3,500 per tonne respectively, and an average of $3,300 per tonne through CY2030.

HSBC retains a positive stance across the metals pack, maintaining 'Buy' ratings on Hindalco Industries (target price ₹1,310), National Aluminium Company (₹455), Hindustan Zinc (₹720), and Tata Steel (₹250).Continue ReadingNote To ReadersDisclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on CNBCTV18.com are their own and not that of the website or its management. CNBCTV18.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.Tagsaluminium pricesshare market today