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US India trade deal impact on stock market: India and the US have sealed a trade deal, ending months of tariff uncertainty that had weighed on markets. The agreement has lifted investor sentiment and eased concerns around exports, currency pressure and foreign flows, with leading investors sharing their views in a conversation with Anil Singhvi on Zee Business.

The panel featured Nilesh Shah, Managing Director at Kotak Mahindra Asset Management; Vijay Kedia, ace investor; and Madhu Kela, ace investor and founder at MK Ventures.

Madhu Kela said the deal removes a major fear that had built up in markets. He said the US is India’s largest trading partner and also the biggest source of FDI and FII flows. Any strain in relations creates uncertainty for investors.

He said recent months were challenging, especially for retail investors. While headline indices held up, many midcap and smallcap stocks saw sharp corrections of 40–60 per cent. This hurt confidence. With the trade deal in place, he expects fear to fade and risk appetite to improve.

Kela said market behaviour could change from “sell on rise” to “buy on dips”. He added that improving portfolio health often changes investor psychology and encourages gradual buying.

Nilesh Shah said the immediate impact of the deal is on sentiment. He said a cloud of uncertainty was hanging over equity, currency and rate markets. That overhang has now reduced.

However, Shah cautioned that investors should not jump to conclusions. He said the real impact will depend on the details of the agreement. He expects the initial rally to be driven by short covering and fear of missing out, as investors who were on the sidelines rush in.

On sectors, Shah highlighted export-oriented areas that were hit earlier due to tariff worries. He named textiles, aquaculture, and gems and jewellery as segments that could see improvement if the terms are favourable.

He also explained that India could gain competitiveness in some export markets where tariff disadvantages earlier limited growth. But he stressed that investors must wait for clarity before taking aggressive calls.

Shah said valuations are not cheap enough to justify a broad re-rating of the market. He said recent gains of 3–4 per cent in a few sessions already discount near-term positives.

He advised investors to stay disciplined on asset allocation. He said timing the market is difficult and that long-term returns depend on staying invested, not chasing rallies. According to him, this is a phase to remain neutral on equities overall, while being selective within sectors.

He added that consumer discretionary, cement, chemicals and textiles could outperform if earnings momentum improves.

Vijay Kedia said markets can always surprise, but he believes recent lows may not be broken easily unless there is a major global shock or an unfavourable surprise in the deal details.

He highlighted a common retail investor mistake. Many investors rush to sell stocks once prices recover slightly after a fall. He said good businesses often do not give easy re-entry points. Selling in haste can lead to long-term regret.

Kedia advised investors to review stocks based on business quality and growth prospects, not short-term price moves. If fundamentals are weak, selling is justified. But strong businesses should not be sold just because prices bounced 10–20 per cent.

Kedia said every bull phase brings new sector leaders. He believes infrastructure, selective metals and some banks look beaten down and may offer opportunities over time. He added that India’s long-term growth story needs credit expansion and infrastructure investment.

However, he cautioned that this is not a phase where indices will move in a straight line. He expects consolidation, with stock-specific opportunities rather than broad-based rallies.