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Commodity Market Outlook: Commodity investors can expect a volatile but opportunity-rich November, as global cues continue to influence prices across metals and energy markets, according to the Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd (MOFSL) Monthly Commodities Canvas Report for November 2025.

The report highlights that precious metals have cooled after record peaks, while base metals are gaining strength on tightening supply and strong industrial demand.

According to MOFSL, gold prices fell 0.5 per cent in the last week of October but still gained 3.4 per cent in a month and 57 per cent year-on-year, closing at Rs 1,21,284 per 10 grams on October 31.

Internationally, gold ended at $4,002 per ounce, up 51.8 per cent year-on-year. Silver also eased 1 per cent weekly, but logged 4.3 per cent monthly and 68 per cent annual returns, closing at Rs 1,48,399 per kilogram in India and $48.65 per ounce globally.

The report attributes this correction to profit-taking after an extended rally, a stronger dollar, and reduced expectations of an immediate Fed rate cut.

However, geopolitical tensions and the prolonged US government shutdown continue to lend support to safe-haven assets.

MOFSL maintains a bullish stance on gold, with a trading range between Rs 1,16,000 and Rs 1,24,000. It suggests the Rs 1,16,000 level as a key accumulation zone if prices hold above it every week.

On the other hand, silver is likely to stay range-bound between Rs 1,39,000 and Rs 1,54,000, with a potential breakout toward Rs 1,63,000 on strength.

The report notes that ETF inflows and robust physical demand have boosted the AUM of Indian gold and silver ETFs. Meanwhile, the Gold/Silver ratio, which had fallen sharply to 78, has now reversed, signalling some rebalancing between the two metals.

MOFSL sees a bullish setup in base metals, led by copper and zinc, as supply shortages and strong industrial demand continue to support prices.

Copper rallied above Rs 1,000 per kg, marking a 6.1 per cent monthly and 26.5 per cent yearly gain. LME inventories have dropped by nearly 50 per cent, while SHFE stocks are down 43 per cent year-to-date. Global refined copper markets posted a smaller surplus of 147,000 tons in 2025, down sharply from 477,000 tons last year.

MOFSL expects copper to find strong support around Rs 977, with upside targets of Rs 1,025–Rs 1,055.

Zinc prices rose 4.3 per cent over the month to Rs 300.3 per kg, supported by falling inventories and refinery shutdowns in Japan, Italy, and the US.

The firm projects near-term upside toward Rs 325–Rs 330, provided prices stay above Rs 285.

Aluminium climbed 4.7 per cent in a month and nearly 13 per cent year-on-year to Rs 271.9 per kg, supported by easing US-China tensions and refinery outages in Australia and Iceland.

MOFSL expects aluminium to remain range-bound between Rs 267–Rs 285, forming a steady “higher-highs and higher-lows” pattern on the charts.

In the energy segment, crude oil prices dipped 2.6 per cent in October to Rs 5,421 per barrel, but MOFSL retains a bullish stance for November.

The firm expects a rally toward Rs 5,600, citing OPEC+’s limited output hike, a steady demand outlook, and persistent geopolitical risk.

Natural gas prices rose 3.1 per cent last month and 21 per cent year-on-year, closing at Rs 365.4 per mmBtu. Seasonal winter demand and rising LNG exports are expected to drive prices higher.

MOFSL recommends “buying on dips” near Rs 360, with upside targets of Rs 405, while maintaining a bullish outlook unless prices fall below Rs 335.

MOFSL advises investors to maintain a selective and tactical approach. While gold and silver may witness consolidation after steep rallies, base metals such as copper and zinc offer strong risk-reward opportunities amid tight supply conditions.

“Commodities are entering a high-volatility phase influenced by macroeconomic events, Fed policy decisions, and global trade negotiations,” the report stated.

“Investors should stay alert, follow range levels closely, and use dips for accumulation in fundamentally strong commodities.”

Anubhav Maurya is a Senior Sub-Editor at Zee Business, focusing on the stock market, personal finance, corporate news, and related sectors.

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