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Why gold and silver remain volatile despite long-term supportGold and silver futures on MCX fell amid global volatility, US monetary policy shifts, and currency trends. Analysts expect continued sensitivity to data.By Anshul  February 17, 2026, 1:46:18 PM IST (Updated)2 Min ReadGold and silver futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) fell on Tuesday (February 17), tracking global weakness and continued volatility in precious metals.

April 2026 gold futures declined ₹1,210, or 0.80%, to ₹1.53 lakh per 10 grams. Silver futures for March 5, 2026 delivery dropped ₹4,685, or 2%, to ₹2.35 lakh per kilogram.

The pullback follows sharp swings in international markets over the past fortnight, as traders respond to shifting expectations around US monetary policy and currency movements.

Interest-rate trajectory shapes sentiment

A softer US inflation reading — with headline CPI rising 2.40% in January — has reinforced expectations that the US Federal Reserve could begin easing policy in 2026. Markets are currently factoring in two rate reductions next year, with some participants eyeing a potential move as early as mid-2026.

NS Ramaswamy, Head of Commodity & CRM at Ventura, said the broader disinflation trend and easing expectations keep the long-term view on gold constructive. He noted that the US Dollar Index has weakened below key psychological levels, and upcoming FOMC minutes and PMI data could determine its next directional move. A softer dollar typically enhances gold’s appeal.

He added that, structurally, gold retains the potential to move higher over the longer term if monetary easing materialises as anticipated.

Silver in transition phase

Silver has corrected more sharply, reflecting its dual role as both a precious and industrial metal.

According to Ramaswamy, the current price structure indicates an accumulation phase, with the metal entering a critical time cycle toward late February and early March. A decisive move above $80 per ounce could signal the start of a broader expansion phase.

Seasonal patterns around the Lunar New Year period, which often see lighter participation, may also be contributing to near-term volatility, he said.

Aksha Kamboj, Vice President at the India Bullion & Jewellers Association (IBJA), said gold’s recent easing appears to be consolidation after earlier gains, while silver’s correction reflects heightened volatility rather than a structural reversal.

Outlook

Analysts said bullion prices will remain sensitive to incoming U.S. economic data, central bank commentary and currency trends. While short-term fluctuations may persist, expectations of policy easing and evolving global macro conditions are likely to guide the next phase of movement in gold and silver.Continue ReadingNote To ReadersDisclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers should consult certified experts before making any investment decisions.First Published: Feb 17, 2026 1:41 PM ISTTagsgoldGold Pricesgold ratessilversilver prices