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Why Inox Wind’s upbeat guidance is not exciting the marketInox Wind’s guidance points to strong revenue and margin growth, but investors are watching execution more closely. With ₹3,200 crore delivered so far, the company needs a sharp fourth-quarter ramp-up to meet its ₹5,000 crore targetBy Nigel D'Souza  February 20, 2026, 11:30:58 AM IST (Published)3 Min ReadInox Wind’s management continues to stand by its ₹5,000 crore revenue guidance for the financial year ending March 2026, but the stock is yet to reflect that confidence. The company's shares were down 0.3% at ₹96.36 on February 20, hovering close to the 52-week low of ₹95.75.

The company expects EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) margins of 20-22% this year. It has also guided for 75% revenue growth in FY27 on top of these numbers.

However, the gap between what has already been delivered and what needs to be achieved in the final quarter remains a key concern for investors. Inox Wind has reported about ₹3,200 crore in revenue in the first nine months of FY26. To meet its full-year guidance of ₹5,000 crore, the company would need to deliver nearly ₹1,800 crore in the January-March quarter alone, implying a sharp ramp-up in execution.

“We've guided for full year numbers. I think I'll leave it at that. And we're confident of achieving what we've said we will achieve,” Devansh Jain, Executive Director of INOXGFL Group told CNBC-TV18.

However, brokerages remain cautious on execution. JM Financial noted that Inox Wind’s December-quarter revenue came in at ₹1,200 crore, which was below both its own estimates and consensus forecasts, despite margin improvement.

“Customer site readiness issues are leading to delay in equipment supply,” JM Financial said in a note released on February 14.

Execution during the quarter stood at 252 megawatts compared with 189 megawatts a year ago, taking total execution for the first nine months of FY26 to around 600 megawatts.

But JM Financial now expects the company to execute about 900 megawatts in FY26, lower than its earlier estimate of 1,050 megawatts, citing challenges in connectivity, right of way (RoW) and power purchase agreements (PPAs).

"Given the challenges in connectivity, RoW and PPAs, we expect IWL to now execute 900/1,100/1,200MW during FY26/27/28 versus our earlier estimates of 1,050/1,500/1,600MW. Earlier, management had given guidance of 1,200/2,000MW during FY26/27." the note stated.

JM Financial has downgraded the stock to 'Add' from 'Buy', while cutting its earnings per share estimate for FY28 to ₹5.0 from ₹7.4.  

Systematix made a similar observation, stating that recent quarterly performance showed a recurring gap between guidance and execution.“INXW’s 3QFY26 performance highlighted recurring divergence from guidance,” it said in a post-earnings release on February 16.

Despite sustained EBITDA margin strength, relatively moderate order inflows compared to peers and weaker execution momentum may continue to weigh on investor sentiment, limiting any sharp re-rating in the stock in the near term.

That may explain why the market reaction has remained muted, even as management reiterates strong growth guidance for the next two financial years.Continue ReadingTagsInox wind