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Coal India Share Price: Brokerages have turned cautious yet divided on Coal India Ltd (CIL) after the state-owned mining giant posted a sharp 32 per cent year-on-year (YoY) decline in consolidated net profit to Rs 4,262.64 crore for the September quarter (Q2 FY26).

The drop was driven by higher costs and lower sales volumes, prompting analysts to revise earnings forecasts and tweak their price targets.

Coal India’s revenue from operations slipped 1.3 per cent YoY to Rs 26,909.23 crore, compared to Rs 27,271.30 crore in the same quarter last year.

Total expenses rose 7 per cent to Rs 26,421.86 crore from Rs 24,670.70 crore, eroding margins.

On the production front, output fell 3.9 per cent YoY to 48.97 million tonnes (MT) in September from 50.94 MT last year. The government attributed this decline to heavy rainfall and waterlogging that disrupted mining activity.

Despite the weaker quarter, Coal and Mines Minister G. Kishan Reddy said there was no coal shortage, and production is expected to recover in the coming months.

Global brokerages gave mixed reactions to Coal India’s weak Q2 performance, with most trimming their price targets. At the current market price of Rs 382, Jefferies remains the most bullish, maintaining a buy rating with a target of Rs 430, implying about 13 per cent upside.

JP Morgan has a neutral stance with a Rs 415 target (9 per cent upside), while Morgan Stanley is equal-weight with a Rs 410 target (7 per cent upside).

CLSA downgraded the stock to hold from accumulate, setting a Rs 390 target (2 per cent upside).

Meanwhile, Citi stayed neutral with a Rs 370 target, indicating a 3 per cent downside.

Overall, analysts see limited near-term potential amid rising costs and sluggish sales growth.

Coal India has set an ambitious FY26 production target of 875 million tonnes and a dispatch goal of 900 million tonnes. Analysts note that achieving these goals will be critical for driving earnings recovery and supporting dividend payouts.

Despite near-term challenges, the company’s dominant market share (over 80 per cent of India’s coal output) and strong cash flows keep long-term investors interested.

However, until cost pressures ease and output growth stabilises, most brokerages suggest a cautious or hold stance, with limited upside in the short term.

Anubhav Maurya is a Senior Sub-Editor at Zee Business, focusing on the stock market, personal finance, corporate news, and related sectors.

He has previously worked wi