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Iran-Israel war | Crude price spike unlikely to be sustainable once uncertainty fades: Complete Circle’s Gurmeet ChadhaGurmeet Chadha of Complete Circle says oil markets are reacting to extreme geopolitical risk, but warns that prolonged price shocks are unlikely unless supply disruptions persist, even as gold and silver gain from safe-haven demand.By Manisha Gupta  March 1, 2026, 10:28:17 PM IST (Published)2 Min ReadCrude oil prices may see sharp near-term volatility amid the escalating Iran-Israel conflict, but the spike is unlikely to sustain once geopolitical uncertainty fades, Gurmeet Chadha, Managing Partner and CIO at Complete Circle, told CNBC-TV18.

Oil prices have already climbed to seven-month highs, gaining nearly 20% as markets built in a war premium amid the military build-up around Iran.

Chadha said certain segments of the energy market could benefit in the short term.

“There will be some positive impact on upstream companies and E&P players, and possibly on standalone refiners like Chennai Petroleum,” he said, adding that integrated players such as Reliance could also see an immediate impact.

However, oil marketing companies and oil-linked sectors like paints and chemicals are likely to face pressure.

He cautioned that oil shocks are far more damaging today than in earlier decades.

“Any oil spike is more damaging today because global debt levels are much higher and the system is fragile. Even a $10–$15 increase can cause problems,” Chadha said.

Safe-haven assets have already begun reacting to the turmoil. Gold has jumped 3–4% in some markets, while silver could see further upside due to positioning dynamics.

“Gold and silver will see a positive reaction. Silver is also interesting due to a potential short squeeze,” he noted.

Also Read | Iran Crisis: No immediate oil disruption for India; Russia pivot possible if conflict drags on

Despite the severity of the current situation, Chadha does not expect elevated crude prices to last indefinitely.

“This doesn’t look sustainable. Once the event plays out, uncertainty fades and prices stabilise,” he said, echoing broader market expectations that risk premiums will ease if supply disruptions do not persist.

The outlook is being shaped not just by geopolitics but also by supply-side developments.

At its latest meeting, OPEC+ announced a voluntary production increase of 200,000 barrels per day, which could help cushion some of the supply shock if exports through Hormuz remain constrained.

Watch accompanying video for entire conversation.Continue Reading(Edited by : Ajay Vaishnav)Tagscrude oilIranIsrael