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Trump’s shifting Ukraine strategy sparks hope and anxiety in Kyiv

Published on 02/05/2025 05:39 PM

One of the darkest days in Ukraine’s war since Russia’s full-scale invasion three years ago came on February 28, when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to the White House ended in disaster. A planned diplomatic luncheon was abruptly cancelled after a televised shouting match with US President Donald Trump, who ejected Zelensky from the Oval Office and reignited fears of a US withdrawal from Kyiv’s cause.

Trump’s pivot to Moscow sparks panicPresident Trump, long sceptical of aid to Ukraine, swiftly pivoted after the failed meeting. He opened backchannel diplomacy with Russian President Vladimir Putin and began drafting a peace plan offering sweeping concessions to Moscow. The move rattled Kyiv and its allies, as Trump’s approach appeared to tilt in favour of Russia’s interests.

A surprising shift and a minerals dealBut just weeks later, a surprising shift has emerged. Trump’s administration announced a new economic deal with Ukraine, granting the US a stake in Ukraine’s future mineral revenues—a step that analysts say signals renewed American interest in Ukraine’s stability and prosperity, the New York Times reported.

Alina Polyakova, president of the Center for European Policy Analysis, called the deal a “win-win for both sides,” describing it as a savvy manoeuvre by Kyiv to appeal to Trump’s transactional instincts.

Vatican meeting hints at a diplomatic thawTensions appeared to thaw further after an impromptu meeting between Trump and Zelensky at the Vatican during Pope Francis’ funeral. Though brief, the 15-minute conversation was described by both sides as positive. The two leaders sat closely in a marble rotunda, intent but no longer hostile, signalling the possibility of a reset. Shortly afterward, Trump condemned a deadly Russian missile strike on Kyiv with a blunt message on social media: “Vladimir, STOP! Let’s get the Peace Deal DONE!”

Confusion reigns inside the Trump administrationDespite this, Trump’s approach remains unpredictable. His administration is divided internally—his special envoy Steve Witkoff has echoed Kremlin talking points in meetings with Putin, while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has maintained a critical stance toward the Russian president. Trump’s foreign policy zigzags have left allies uncertain whether the US is inching toward real peace efforts or veering dangerously close to abandoning Ukraine altogether, according to the New York Times.

Trump grows impatient with PutinTrump’s frustration with Putin has also grown. His early admiration for the Russian leader seems to be waning in the face of Putin’s escalating demands, including recognition of Russian sovereignty over five occupied Ukrainian regions and a halt to Western military support. In a recent social media post, Trump hinted that Putin was stalling: “Maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently.”

Sanctions and pressure on the tableThat frustration has sparked threats of economic escalation. Trump is reportedly weighing “secondary sanctions” on countries like China and India for continuing trade with Russia. His ally in Congress, Senator Lindsey Graham, has said he is close to securing a veto-proof majority for a bill imposing new sanctions on Russia and tariffs on its energy exports.

Ukraine regains footing through strategic diplomacyZelensky, meanwhile, appears to be climbing out of Washington’s political doghouse. Experts say the Ukrainian leader skilfully renegotiated the minerals agreement initially presented in February—one critics labelled as extortionary—and gave Trump a business-friendly stake in Ukraine’s survival. Nataliia Shapoval, head of the Kyiv School of Economics Institute, remarked, “In the rules of the game of the Trump team, Ukraine proved itself worthy of negotiations.”

Supporters still fear Trump may walk awayBut hope in Kyiv remains cautious. Trump’s record of excusing Putin’s aggression and rejecting Western assessments of Russian war crimes casts a long shadow. In mid-April, he warned he might abandon the effort altogether if peace talks stalled. US Vice President JD Vance recently echoed this, suggesting the U.S. could “walk away” if progress remains elusive.

High stakes for Trump and UkraineSuch a withdrawal would carry enormous risks. Trump may not want to be remembered for “losing” Ukraine, especially if Russia escalates its offensive and the war ends in a humanitarian catastrophe. The potential fallout could surpass even the chaos of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan—an event Trump himself has called a national disgrace.

A fragile moment of hopeFor now, Ukraine remains cautiously optimistic. The minerals deal and Trump’s public scolding of Putin may mark a turning point. But with Trump’s foreign policy still driven by shifting moods and divided advisors, the future of US support for Ukraine remains anything but certain, the New York Times concluded.

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